A weighted and blended aggregation of polls conducted since the May 11 northern debate among some 8000 respondents reinforce the impression that Andrea Horwath's NDP has the momentum in the Ontario election contest. Polls from Abacus, Ipsos, Ekos, Mainstreet and Innovative Research estimate that popular support levels in the province at this time are Conservative 38%, NDP 33%, and Liberal 23%. When translating this into seats through the LISPOP algorithm, the totals are Conservative 69, NDP 39 and Liberal 16.
As Ontario moves into the month of May and the election campaign evolves from the "phony war" stage into official combat, what appeared to be a Conservative juggernaut over the previous two months has slipped somewhat. Surprisingly, the movement has not been to their traditional rival the Liberals, but rather to the NDP. A weighted aggregation of polls from Ipsos, Pollara, Abacus, Ekos, Forum, Nanos and Mainstreet conducted among over 7000 respondents during the early part of May suggest that the popular vote support is now Conservatives 40%, NDP 30% and Liberals 25%.
Since the previous LISPOP seat projection was released four weeks ago, five new Ontario election polls have been released by Abacus, Ekos, Ipsos, Mainstreet and Forum, encompassing an aggregate sample of over 8000 respondents. However their collective impact suggests negligible change over the period, despite the presentation of Premier Wynne's budget. The overall popular support levels suggested were Conservatives 41%, Liberals 27%, and NDP 25%, leading to a revised projection of Conservatives 80 seats, Liberals 22 seats, and NDP 22seats.
In the wake of the Ontario Conservative leadership contest, four new polls have been published, all of which confirm the basic trend pointing to a majority victory for the party. The data from Ipsos, Leger, Campaign Research and Forum was based upon over 4300 weighted interviews held between March 11-14. In the aggregate, the provincial distribution of party support was Conservatives 43%, Liberals 27%, and NDP 25%.