Ontario election post-mortem

This is intended as a brief summary of the final LISPOP projection and map. Our final numbers suggested the Conservatives would take 69 seats, the NDP 50, the Liberals 4 and Greens 1. However as noted in that piece, it was based upon an aggregated assumption of popular vote at  Cons 38%, NDP 37% and Libs 19%. The Liberal figure was close, but the latest data available suggest the Conservative margin over the NDP was in fact almost 7 points, 40.5% to 33.7%.

NDP Momentum has Stalled

The final round of polls in the Ontario election campaign seems to indicate only the slightest change from the previous LISPOP projection. However it is becoming apparent that the NDP's previous momentum has stalled, and a Conservative majority government seems probable. The blended aggregation of polls among over 9000 respondents suggests a popular vote distribution of Conservatives 38%, NDP 37%, and Liberals 19%. This translates into a seat distribution of Conservatives 69, NDP 50, Liberals 4, and Greens 1.


A Public Opinion Tie Means the Tories Win

A weighted and blended aggregation  of polls from Abacus, Pollara, Ekos. Forum and Research Co. conducted among some 8000 respondents that have been released since May 31 suggest that the NDP surge has stopped, and for the first time during the campaign their support level has slightly declined. The following projection estimates that the provincial vote distribution is NDP-37%, Conservatives-37% and Liberals -19%.

Conservative Seat Lead Narrows as Liberals Sink

The following projection is based upon a weighted aggregation of seven polls released since May 23, among 7000 respondents. Only a minority of the interviews have been conducted since the May 27 leadership debate. The popular support levels reflected by these data are NDP-38%, Conservatives -35%, and Liberals-20%. Certain constituency polls, not presented here, were also considered in the accompanying riding map. This translates into a seat projection of Conservatives 63, NDP 54, and Liberals 7. These numbers would place the Conservatives right at the cusp of a majority.

Conservatives on the Verge of Losing Majority Government

A brand new set of polls from Ipsos, Pollara and Leger among approximately 3000 respondents released this week with virtually identical results, suggest that popular support levels in Ontario at the moment are NDP 38%, Conservatives 37%, and Liberals 21%. When that gets translated into seats through the LISPOP algorithm, the totals are Conservatives 64, NDP 48, and Liberals 12. This would put the province on the verge of minority government. The Conservatives could only lose one more seat and retain a majority.