NDP Continues to Gain in Quebec

The following seat projection is drawn from a weighting and blending of polls conducted between Apr. 26 to 29. It is an adaption of the one circulated on April 30, but includes additional polls unavailable at the time including data from Nanos, Ipsos,Angus Reid, Ekos, Harris-Decima, Leger and Forum Research. The aggregate sample exceeds 10,000 respondents.

Final Projection Prior to the 2008 Election

The following is an application of the LISPOP seat projection model applied retrospectivrely using the actual election vote proportions provided regionally as presented in the Globe & Mail website. Two tables are presented below. The first is a postdicted seat distribution using the actual regional percentage splits (with the actual seat distribution in parentheses). The second reports the actual percentage regional splits from the election.

Tsunami in Quebec

The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum research, Ipsos, Nanos and CROP (Quebec only) conducted between April 18-20. Approximately 8000 respondents are included in the aggregate figures. Quebec has marked what has been one of the most dramatic transformations of public opinion in memory, after a very static period covering the election's first three weeks.

Conservatives Gravitating Towards 2008 Results

The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Nanos, Environics, Abacus, Leger, Angus Reid, Harris-Decima, Leger and Forum Research, conducted from April 11 to April 18. The number of respondents interviewed exceeded 15,000 the largest aggregate sample ever used in a LISPOP projection, prior to the final week of an election campaign. The overall projection shows only modest change from recent weeks, with the race tightening somewhat as the NDP rises slightly and the Conservatives recede a bit.