Federal

NDP Honeymoon Persists

An analysis of polls by Ipsos Reid, Harris-Decima and Forum Research, administered between April 28 and May 14, drawing an aggregate sample of over 3500 interviews, suggests continuing strength for the New Democratic Party. The current projection translates the latest poll numbers into 118 seats for the NDP, a slight three-seat gain from the last projection, and a three-seat loss for the Conservatives. The other parties' standings remain unchanged from the last projection. The NDP's gains are disproportionately in Ontario, and don't translate into many new seats there.

NDP Gains in Wake of Mulcair Victory

An analysis of polls conducted by Ipsos Reid, Nanos Research and Léger Marketing between April 2-18 on an aggregate sample of about 4000 respondents continues to project the Conservative Party seat strength to minority status, 135 seats, a loss of 31 seats from its 2011 election victory, while the New Democratic Party's strength is projected to 115 seats, a modest improvement from last year's election results. The Liberal Party's current standing is projected at 50 seats; seven seats are projected for the Bloc Québécois. The Green Party holds on to one seat.

Conservatives Continue to Slide

An analysis of polls conducted by Environics and Ipsos Reid between March 6-18 on an aggregate sample of about 4600 respondents projects a drop in Conservative Party strength to 133 seats, a loss of 33 seats from its 2011 election victory, while the NDP's strength is projected to 97 seats. The Liberal Party's current standing projects to 57 seats, with 20 seats for the Bloc Quebecois. These two polls were conducted before the weekend's NDP leadership convention that selected Thomas Mulcair.

Post-election Trends: Conservatives Slide in Ontario, NDP Down in Quebec

A blend of polls conducted by Nanos, Abacus, Angus Reid, Harris-Decima and CROP (Quebec only) between Jan. 12-23 on an aggregate sample in excess of 5000 respondents projects Conservative strength to number around 144 seats, 66 for the Liberals and 82 for the NDP. It should be clarified at the outset that as Canada will have a seat redistribution prior to the next federal election in 2015, the following results can be compared to Fantasy Football.

Post Mortem 2011

LISPOP has been in the practice of providing a post mortem of its seat projection since it went online for the 2004 election. What follows will be an instant review, not intended to be the final analysis which hopefully will be provided in the coming days for those watching this space. It consists of two tables, the first comparing our final pre-election seat projection of May 1, with the results as reported on the morning of May 3, they might still change slightly.