Liberals Surge in Quebec

The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of over 5500 respondents in polls conducted by Ipsos, Forum Research and Abacus from mid-August to mid-September. The only substantial change from the previous LISPOP projection in early July occurred in Quebec, where NDP support dropped significantly moving mostly to the Liberals. Still this configuration of popular vote levels indicated that Justin Trudeau's party is quite distant from a majority. The 2011 results are in brackets. 

January Polls Place Conservatives on Cusp of Majority

The following projection is based upon a blended sample of over 4600 respondents polls from Angus Reid and Forum Research conducted between Jan. 2 and Jan. 18. The numbers represent a gain of fifteen seats for the Conservatives since the previous federal LISPOP projection two months ago mostly from the Liberals, with slight increases in every region of the country but the largest pickup in the Prairies. It should be cautioned that the projection uses the tentative boundary changes in the various provinces, not the final ones. 

Liberals Make Some Gains

The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of about 4800 respondents conducted by Abacus, Ipsos Reid and Nanos Research between Oct. 11 and Nov. 11, 2012. There is no dramatic change from the previous LISPOP projection in early October, but there were some gains for the Liberals over the previous six weeks, mostly in Quebec and the Atlantic region. These data are all based upon the provisional redistribution maps presented earlier this year, but they do not represent the final boundaries that will be in place for the 2015 election. 

Seat Redistribution Benefits the Conservatives

A blend of polls conducted in September by Environics, Harris-Decima, Nanos, Abacus and Forum Research on a blended sample of over 7000 interviews 159 seats for the Conservative Party, 113 seats for the NDP, 55 seats for the Liberals, 10 for the Bloc Québécois, and 1 seat for the Greens. It might be noted that these figures indicated a Conservative lead in national popular vote of approximately two percentage points over the NDP, and approximately 11 points over the Liberals.

Federal Voting Patterns Stable

A blend of polls conducted by Forum Research and Abacus between July 25 and Aug. 12 on an aggregate sample of about 3700 respondents projects Conservative Party strength at around 133 seats, 120 seats for the New Democratic Party, 46 for the Liberal Party, 8 for the Bloc Québécois and 1 for the Green Party. The polls and seat projection indicate that popular support levels have not moved appreciably since the previous LISPOP projection three months ago.