Liberals Slip in Quebec

The following projection is based upon a blended aggregation of polls conducted in March, 2015 among some 18,000 respondents by Abacus, Ekos, Forum and Leger Marketing. The basic finding is similar to projections we have seen since this past December, a minority parliament with no party close to the required 170 seats for a majority, but the Conservatives in first place. As each new set of polls is considered, there are slight variations from region to region but the net effect has been consistently similar.

Conservatives Edge Upward Among Mixed Regional Trends

The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls released in February and conducted by Abacus, CROP (Quebec only), Ekos, Ipsos Reid and Leger Marketing among an aggregate sample of over 12,000 respondents. Results indicate only modest changes from the January LISPOP projection in any given region, and trends that are somewhat conflicting with each national party gaining support in some regions and declining in others.

Slight Conservative Rise

The following seat projection is based upon a series of polls released between mid-December and mid-January by Abacus, Ekos, Forum Research, Ipsos Reid and Leger Marketing. They involved a blended and weighted aggregation of regional samples among over 20,000 respondents interviewed in various ways. The net result presented below showed relatively little overall change from the previous LISPOP projection released Dec. 9, 2014, but the Conservative numbers did rise slightly on balance, largely attributable to a modest increase in support in Ontario.

Back to a Horserace

The following seat projection drawn from polls conducted in November indicates a substantial tightening of Canadian public opinion reflecting an erosion of the Liberal lead in recent months. While the Liberals still maintain an approximate two percentage-point lead in popular support nationally, their decline in Ontario from a 10- to a two-point margin over the Conservatives since the previous LISPOP projection largely accounts for a modest Conservative plurality in seats. Data presented here are derived from a blended and weighted aggregation of polls released between Nov. 4 and Dec.

NDP Rebounds as Polls Vary Widely

In conjunction with the following LISPOP seat projection, it must be observed that the current crop of polls utilized varies well beyond appropriate estimates that should be based upon the assumptions of probability samples. Although the entire cluster is drawn from a four-week period published between Sept. 19 to Oct. 17, in the key province of Ontario polls published 10 days apart range from a 20 percentage-point Liberal lead over the Conservatives, to a two-point Conservative lead.