Polls released from Abacus Data, CROP (Quebec only), Forum Research, Leger Marketing and Mainstreet Research on a blended sample of more than 12,000 respondents projects 134 seats for the New Democratic Party, 116 seats for the Conservative Party, 86 for the Liberals, and one each for the Bloc Québécois and Green Party.
Another month of polling among some 8000 new respondents, and hardly anything has changed from mid-July, or for that matter from mid-June, certainly nothing beyond the level of sampling error. The following seat projection was based upon a blended and weighted aggregation of surveys from various polling firms conducted between July 22 through August 10. This period overlaps the first few days immediately following the opening television debate among party leaders.
The following projection drawn from a blended sample of polls conducted between July 3 and 16 among approximately 7500 respondents, produced a seat distribution almost identical to that of the previous month among a completely different set of interviews. The similar totals masked a number of regional differences that largely offset each other. The New Democratic Party performance improved from June in Atlantic Canada and the West, particularly in British Columbia, but it diminished somewhat in Ontario and Quebec.
The accompanying seat projection is drawn from a blended sample of surveys from such pollsters as Abacus, Ekos and Ipsos Reid that were conducted since May 6. This included some 11,000 interviews, but excluded surveys that were partially conducted prior to the Alberta election, because that event seemed to coincide with a dramatic change in public opinion swinging to the New Democratic Party. That trend was most evidenced in Quebec voting patterns, but was also apparent in the western provinces.
The following seat projection differs from others typically produced for LISPOP, in that it is based upon a smaller aggregate sample approximately 4,000 respondents including Ekos, Forum and Insights Canada (BC only), and is drawn from a shorter than usual time frame (since May 6 following the Alberta election). This decision was made because public opinion has seemed to move significantly over this time period.