Visitors to the LISPOP website will note that there has been no federal seat projection since this past January. That is because there has been a scarcity of polling data upon which these projections are based. Even now they are still limited. As a result the following projection is drawn from polling data aggregated by Eric Grenier at the CBC. At other times our polling aggregation methods are somewhat different. For example, at LISPOP we typically weight the impact of polls by sample size, and down weight those conducted by IVR (robopolls), which has differed from other methodologies.
The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls among over 12,000 respondents conducted by Mainstreet, Campaign Research and Nanos between Dec. 23 and Jan. 19, although the vast majority took place in January 2018. It is the first LISPOP projection presented since the 2015 federal election. The most significant changes in popular vote since the election have occurred in Quebec where the New Democrats have lost approximately 10% support mostly to the Liberals, and in BC where the NDP has also lost 10% support largely to the Greens.
LISPOP has been in the practice of providing a post mortem of its seat projection since it went online for the 2004 election. It consists of two tables, the first comparing our final pre-election seat projection of October 18 with the results reported on October 20, and the projection with the actual vote results. The second table compares the aggregate regional splits in late polls used for the final projection with the popular vote totals by region.
Polls conducted between October 13 and 17 by Angus Reid, Ekos Research Associates, Forum Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos Reid, Mainstreet and Nanos Research on a blended sample of more than 12,000 respondents projects 140 seats for the Liberal party, enough for a minority. Continue for more details...
Polls conducted between October 7 and 14 by Angus Reid, Ekos, Forum, Innovative Research, Ipsos, and Nanos on a blended sample of more than 6,000 respondents projects 110 seats for the Conservative Party, 80 seats for the New Democratic Party, 144 for the Liberals, three for the Bloc Québécois and one for the Green Party.