Conservatives Recover Marginally

The following seat projection is based upon a blending and weighting of polls from Harris-Decima, Compas, Innovative Research, Ekos and Nanos conducted from April 6 to 13. The aggregate sample from which they are drawn consists of over 7500 respondents, most of whom were interviewed before the televised leaders' debates. Although the numbers have changed slightly from the previous projection, the overall pattern of the previous two months sustains.

Something Stirring in Quebec?

The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum Research, Angus Reid and Nanos conducted between April 4-10, 2011, comprising over 7000 respondents. The Conservative lead in Ontario has diminished slightly to 6.5%. The accompanying projection indicates that the national and regional seat allocations have barely budged in recent weeks.

Conservative Minority Holds Steady

The following seat projection is based upon a weighted blending of polls from Environics, Ekos, Angus Reid, Nanos and Innovative research conducted from March 30 and April 6. The aggregate sample is drawn from over 6000 respondents. As we complete the second week of the election campaign, the big news is that there is no news at all. It would seem as if the early campaigning hasn't affected public opinion at all, which has been virtually static since early February. This is true not just nationally, but in each of the regions as well.

Liberals Cutting into Harper Majority

The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of polls from Nanos, Ekos and Leger conducted between March 28 and April 2. It includes interviews with over 8000 respondents. As with other recent projections since early February, the overall numbers represent only marginal shifting which hardly exceeds sampling error in most regions.

Conservatives Slip Out of Majority Range

The following seat projection is based upon a weighted blending of polls from Nanos, Harris-Decima, Abacus and Forum Research that were drawn from March 24-29. The overall sample was approximately 6000. While the national total of seats allocated drops the Conservatives down below the magic number of 155, the real story of the past seven weeks is how stable public opinion and the polls have actually been. Throughout the last five LISPOP projections during this period, the Conservative number has varied only between 150 and 157 seats, and it is now in the middle of that range.