Federal

Liberals Bounce Back from Second Scandal

The following projection is based upon a series of polls released between Sept. 26 to 30 from Ipsos, Leger, Abacus, Nanos, Innovative, Ekos and Campaign Research, producing a blended and weighted sample of more than 10,000 respondents. The Liberals currently lead with 158 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 136, the New Democratic Party with 20, the Bloc Québécois with 17,  the Green Party with five, plus one Independent and one for the People's Party. These numbers are very similar to the LISPOP projection at the end of August.

"Blackface" Reverses Liberal Trend

The following projection is based on a series of polls released between Sept. 20 to 24, since the embarrassing photos of Justin Trudeau were made public. It draws from a blended and weighted sample of 11,000 respondents from surveys administered by Ipsos, DART, Nanos, Angus Reid, Ekos, Abacus and Forum. The Liberal Party continues to lead with 150 seats, a decline of 15 seats from last week’s projection. The Conservatives edge closer behind with 142 seats. The NDP gained two seats to bring it up to 22, the Bloc Québécois gained four to currently stand at 17.

Liberals Edge Closer to Majority

The following projection is based upon a series of polls released between Sept. 8 to 16 from Ipsos, Nanos, DART, Abacus and Leger, producing a blended and weighted sample of more than 8000 respondents. The Liberal Party leads with 165 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 133, the New Democrats with 20, the Bloc Quebecois with 13, the Greens with 5, and one each for the People's Party and an Independent. This is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but rather is an estimate of what the parliamentary seat distribution during the opening week of the election campaign.

Slight NDP Decline in Final Pre-election Projection

The following LISPOP projection is based upon a series of polls released between Aug. 29 and Sept.11 from nine different companies, producing a blended sample of over 12,000 respondents. The Liberal Party of Canada leads with 161 seats, followed by the Conservative Party of Canada with 135 seats. The New Democratic Party is projected with 21 seats, the Bloc Québécois with 13 seats, the Green Party with six seats, and one each for an independent candidate and the People’s Party of Canada.

Liberals Gain Slightly on Coasts

The following projection is based upon a series of public polls released during August, 2019, by Abacus Data, Campaign Research, Ekos Research, Ipsos, Leger Marketing and Nanos Research,  producing a blended and weighted sample of more than 10,000 respondents. The Liberal Party of Canada leads with 158 seats, followed by the Conservative Party of Canada with 135 seats. The New Democratic Party is projected with 25 seats, the Bloc Québécois with 13 seats, the Green Party with five seats, and one each for an independent candidate and the People’s Party of Canada.