Ontario election post-mortem

This is intended as a brief summary of the final LISPOP projection and map. Our final numbers suggested the Conservatives would take 69 seats, the NDP 50, the Liberals 4 and Greens 1. However as noted in that piece, it was based upon an aggregated assumption of popular vote at  Cons 38%, NDP 37% and Libs 19%. The Liberal figure was close, but the latest data available suggest the Conservative margin over the NDP was in fact almost 7 points, 40.5% to 33.7%. According to our algorithm such a spread would have produced a projection  with 11 more Conservative victories over the NDP, and one more Conservative victory over the Liberals.

Our final map had 34 seats coloured deep blue for a safer seat, and all 34 were won by the Conservatives.

The map had 20 seats coloured pale blue for leaning Conservative, and 18 were won by the party. The exceptions were Hamilton West and Ottawa South.

The map had 30 seats coloured orange for safer seats for the NDP and that party won 28. The exceptions were Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

The map had 14 seats colored yellow for leaning NDP, and that party only won 7, however of the 7 they lost 6 were by margins under 5% explained by the difference in polling vs actual vote count.

There were no red seats on the map, but of the three pink seats for leaning Liberal, the party only took 1, Ottawa-Vanier.

Of the remaining 23 grey seats listed as too close to call, 15 were won by the Conservatives, 4 by the Liberals, 3 by the NDP 1 by the Greens.

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