NDP Momentum has Stalled

The final round of polls in the Ontario election campaign seems to indicate only the slightest change from the previous LISPOP projection. However it is becoming apparent that the NDP's previous momentum has stalled, and a Conservative majority government seems probable. The blended aggregation of polls among over 9000 respondents suggests a popular vote distribution of Conservatives 38%, NDP 37%, and Liberals 19%. This translates into a seat distribution of Conservatives 69, NDP 50, Liberals 4, and Greens 1.


69 50 4 1


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Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. 

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