Conservative Lead Begins to Slip

As Ontario moves into the month of May and the election campaign evolves from the "phony war" stage into official combat, what appeared to be a Conservative juggernaut over the previous two months has slipped somewhat. Surprisingly, the movement has not been to their traditional rival the Liberals, but rather to the NDP. A weighted aggregation of polls from Ipsos, Pollara, Abacus, Ekos, Forum, Nanos and Mainstreet conducted among over 7000 respondents during the early part of May suggest that the popular vote support is now Conservatives 40%, NDP 30% and Liberals 25%. This translates into a LISPOP seat projection of Conservatives 72 seats, NDP 30 and Liberals 22. Most of the NDP gains come from the Liberals, but the Liberals regain a few from the Conservatives in the GTA, as that party's support also declines a little. These numbers still point to a Conservative majority, but no longer one that is unassailable. 


72 30 22


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Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. 

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