Little Change in Past Month

Since the previous LISPOP seat projection was released four weeks ago, five new Ontario election polls have been released by Abacus, Ekos, Ipsos, Mainstreet and Forum, encompassing an aggregate sample of over 8000 respondents. However their collective impact suggests negligible change over the period, despite the presentation of Premier Wynne's budget. The overall popular support levels suggested were Conservatives 41%, Liberals 27%, and NDP 25%, leading to a revised projection of Conservatives 80 seats, Liberals 22 seats, and NDP 22seats. That is a net change of only two seats from the Conservatives to the Liberals during this time.


80 22 22


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Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. 

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