New Polls Project Harper Majority

The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of four weighted polls conducted by Ipsos, Nanos and Harris-Decima from March 10 to March 23. The aggregate sample includes approximately 5000 respondents. It suggests that the stable pattern of party preference over the past six weeks might have been broken with the most recent Ipsos poll. Stephen Harper's Conservatives have apparently edged into majority territory. This projection assumes an 10% Conservative lead in Ontario. This is the first time since the 2008 election that the LISPOP projection shows the Conservatives with over 155 seats. As things stand, it seems to be in Ontario, particularly the bedroom suburbs surrounding Toronto, that the prospects for a Conservative majority in the forthcoming election are being determined. This is the first projection since the parliamentary accountability issue became prominent, and at the moment it doesn't yet seem to have had much impact.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region, released March 28, 2011

  conservative liberal ndp bq
Other
Canada
156
68
33
51
--
2008 Election Results
143
77
37
49
2
Atlantic provinces
15
13
4
--
--
2008 Election Results
10
17
4
--
1
Quebec
10
13
1
51
--
2008 Election Results
10
14
1
49
1
Ontario
58
32
16
--
--
2008 Election Results
51
38
17
--
--
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and territories
25
3
3
--
--
2008 Election Results
23
3
5
--
--
Alberta
28
--
--
--
--
2008 Election Results
27
--
1
--
--
British Columbia
20
7
9
--
--
2008 Election Results
22
5
9
--
--

Note:

        The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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