Liberal Surge in Ontario Continues

Momentum for the Liberal Party in Ontario continues unabated. In the last three weeks, Liberals have turned around a one percentage-point deficit to the Conservatives in the province to a 14 percentage-point lead, that seems to grow by the day. The following projection is based upon a weighted averaging of polls from Angus Reid, Ekos, Forum, Innovative Research, Ipsos, and Nanos conducted between Oct. 7-14 among over 6000 respondents.

Canada 110(166) 80(103) 144(34) 3(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 4(14) 4(6) 24(12)    
Quebec 14(5) 40(59) 21(7) 3(4)  
Ontario 32(73) 15(22) 74(11)    
Prairies & North 18(26) 5(3) 8(2)    
Alberta 29(27) 2(1) 3(0)    
British Columbia 13(21) 14(12) 14(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact Dr. Barry Kay, at [email protected].

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