Ontario Swing Points to Liberal Minority Government

For the first time in twelve months, The Liberals now lead the LISPOP seat projection, although very narrowly. The following table is derived from a weighted aggregation of eleven separate polls conducted by Abacus, Angus Reid, Ekos, Innovative, Leger, Forum, Mainstreet, and Nanos among 18,000 respondents between Oct. 5-11.  The most significant trend since our previous projection is Liberal momentum in Ontario where they have now opened a greater than seven percentage-point lead over the Conservatives. Quebec also is very volatile with the NDP lead in that province continuing to narrow significantly.

Canada 122(166) 84(103) 128(34) 3(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 4(14) 4(6) 24(12)    
Quebec 14(5) 41(59) 20(7) 3(4)  
Ontario 44(73) 16(22) 61(11)    
Prairies & North 17(26) 6(3) 8(2)    
Alberta 29(27) 2(1) 3(0)    
British Columbia 14(21) 15(12) 12(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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