Momentum Shifts to Liberals as NDP Slips in Quebec

The following seat projection is drawn from polls by Angus Reid, Forum Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos Reid, Leger Marketing and Nanos Research between Sept. 28-Oct.4 among over 10,000 respondents. The net change has most favoured the Liberals, notably in Ontario, while the NewDemocratic Party has declined most in Quebec where the Bloc Québécois has been the prime beneficiary in vote increase. That the Liberals are still 10 seats back of the Conservatives reflects that their vote support is less efficiently distributed than the Conservatives.

Canada 123(166) 98(103) 113(34) 3(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 4(14) 4(6) 24(12)    
Quebec 12(5) 48(59) 15(7) 3(4)  
Ontario 50(73) 18(22) 53(11)    
Prairies & North 15(26) 9(3) 7(2)    
Alberta 29(27) 2(1) 3(0)    
British Columbia 13(21) 17(12) 11(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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