Three-Way Race Tightens

Just as the national popular support totals have tightened in recent days, LISPOP's seat projection is closer than ever among the three main political parties. The underlying model is based upon regional, not national data, but the seat numbers have drawn ever closer. The following projection is based upon an aggregated and weighted sample of polls from Abacus, Data, Ekos Research Associates, Forum Research, Innovative Research Group, Ipsos Reid and Nanos Research among an overall sample of more than 8000 respondents. The greatest difference from the previous week was the Conservative recovery  in Ontario (+10 seats), drawn from the Liberals and New Democratic Party. The Liberals, however, partially compensated with modest gains, two more seats each in Quebec and Alberta. These numbers suggest that any party could finish first, second or third, with the only safe conclusion being that a minority government is likely.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released Sept. 15, 2015.

Canada 116(166) 120(103) 101(34) 0(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 4(14) 6(6) 22(12)    
Quebec 5(5) 60(59) 13(7) 0(4)  
Ontario 53(73) 21(22) 47(11)    
Prairies & North 15(26) 9(3) 7(2)    
Alberta 28(27) 3(1) 3(0)    
British Columbia 11(21) 21(12) 9(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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