Little Impact from Duffy Trial

The first set of polls conducted largely since the Mike Duffy trial renewed suggests there is little evidence as yet to indicate that it is significantly influencing party support in the federal election campaign. A blended and weighted aggregation of polls from Forum, Leger, Abacus, Mainstreet and CROP (Quebec only) among more than 12,000 respondents conducted between August 10 and 19 again show only modest change in voter preference from results in recent months. The Conservatives did drop three percentage points in Ontario and British Columbia from the previous LISPOP projection, but made slight gains in Alberta and the Prairies. The only other noteworthy movement was a New Democratic Party rise of three percentage points in Quebec, largely at the expense of the Bloc Québécois. Taken together, the NDP reflects a net gain of six seats, mostly in Quebec, and the Conservatives have a net decline of five seats since the previous projection. Along the table presented below, the seat projection is also illustrated on a map of Canada's new 338 districts, which will be contested in the next federal election:

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released August 25, 2015.

Canada 116(166) 134(103) 86(34) 1(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 6(14) 7(6) 19(12)    
Quebec 8(5) 58(59) 11(7) 1(4)  
Ontario 51(73) 31(22) 39(11)    
Prairies & North 15(26) 9(3) 7(2)    
Alberta 27(27) 5(1) 2(0)    
British Columbia 9(21) 24(12) 8(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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