Little Change in Party Support

Another month of polling among some 8000 new respondents, and hardly anything has changed from mid-July, or for that matter from mid-June, certainly nothing beyond the level of sampling error. The following seat projection was based upon a blended and weighted aggregation of surveys from various polling firms conducted between July 22 through August 10. This period overlaps the first few days immediately following the opening television debate among party leaders. In the following table, no seat total for any party in a given region varied by more than two seats from the previous projection. For example, the most notable change was the Bloc Quebecois declining from 4 seats to 2 in Quebec. Whatever dramatic changes occurred following the Alberta election, public opinion appears to have become static over the past couple of months, and no party is anywhere near the 170 seats required for a parliamentary majority. Along the table presented below, the seat projection is also illustrated on a map of Canada's new 338 districts, which will be contested in the next federal election:

Canada 121 128 86 2 1
Atlantic 6 7 19    
Quebec 9 54 13 2  
Ontario 54 29 38    
Prairies-North 14 10 7    
Alberta 27 5 2    
BC 11 23 7   1

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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