Liberal Gains in Ontario and British Columbia

After 10 weeks of seat projections, where little movement in public opinion could be noted beyond the range of sampling error, the last few days show evidence of Liberal momentum, most notably in Ontario and British Columbia. They are still in third place in the national seat projection, but very close to the Conservatives. The Liberals have gained 17 seats since the previous week's numbers, 13 in Ontario, now placing the Liberals first in that province. Interestingly, Liberal Party gains in BC at the expense of the Conservatives have swung several seats in that province to the New Democratic Party. The following projection is comprised of a blended and weighted sample of approximately 8000 respondents from surveys by Ipsos, Nanos, Leger, Ekos and Forum collected between Aug. 26 through Sept. 8. It is too early to tell if this is the beginning of a bigger swing or is merely a short term blip, but it does represent the largest shift noticed by LISPOP since mid-June. Along the table presented below, the seat projection is also illustrated on a map of Canada's new 338 districts, which will be contested in the next federal election:

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released Sept. 8, 2015.

Canada 106(166) 128(103) 103(34) 0(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 5(14) 6(6) 21(12)    
Quebec 5(5) 62(59) 11(7) 0(4)  
Ontario 42(73) 26(22) 53(11)    
Prairies & North 15(26) 9(3) 7(2)    
Alberta 28(27) 5(1) 1(0)    
British Columbia 11(21) 20(12) 10(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].