Shifts in BC and Quebec Offset Each Other

A blended aggregation of over 13,000 interviews from Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Forum Research, Ekos, Innovative Research and Ipsos Reid conducted in late August reflects a similar net result to seat projections conducted since mid-June. This outcome masks some internal regional differences however. The New Democratic Party has consolidated its support in Quebec, raising both its popular vote support and seat total to levels that exceed its historic 2011  election performance, apparently eliminating the last projected representation of the Bloc Québécois in that province. However the NDP declined, somewhat, in British Columbia, and in the process there was only a marginal difference in its seat total from the previous week's totals. Apart from these two provinces, there were only minimal changes of a seat or two in any other region.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released Sept. 1, 2015.

Canada 119(166) 132(103) 86(34) 0(4) 1(1)
Atlantic 5(14) 6(6) 21(12)    
Quebec 5(5) 63(59) 10(7) 0(4)  
Ontario 50(73) 31(22) 40(11)    
Prairies & North 15(26) 9(3) 7(2)    
Alberta 28(27) 5(1) 1(0)    
British Columbia 16(21) 18(12) 7(2)   1(1)

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].