Federal

Small Shift Tilts Liberal

The following projection is based upon a series of polls released during the last half of July, 2019, by Nanos, Abacus, Angus Reid, Campaign Research, Leger, Forum and Mainstreet, producing a blended and weighted sample of approximately 12,400 respondents. The Liberal Party of Canada leads with 152 seats, followed by the Conservative Party of Canada with 142 seats. The New Democratic Party is projected with 23 seats, the Bloc Québécois with 13 seats, the Green Party with 6 seats, and one each for an independent candidate and the People’s Party of Canada.

The Conservative Tide Ebbs

The following projection is based on a series of polls released during the first half of July, 2019, by Nanos, Abacus, Ipsos and Mainstreet, producing a blended and weighted sample of 7700 respondents. The Conservative Party of Canada leads with 148 projected seats, followed closely by the Liberal Party, with 145 seats. The New Democratic Party trails a distant third (27 seats), with the Bloc Québécois ranking fifth with 14. Four seats are projected for the Green Party of Canada, one for the People’s Party of Canada, and one seat is projected for an independent candidate.

Conservative Momentum Stalls Short of Majority

The following projection for LISPOP (Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy) is based upon a series of polls conducted during June, 2019 by Nanos, Angus Reid, Ipsos, Ekos and Forum, producing a blended sample of 9700 respondents. This is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but is an estimate of parliamentary seat distribution during the period of polling.

Conservatives Now Clearly in the Lead

The following projection for LISPOP (Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy) and Global News is based upon a series of polls conducted during May, 2019 by Nanos, Angus Reid and Campaign Research producing a blended sample of some 6800 respondents. It should also be clarified that this is not to be interpreted as a prediction of the future, but rather an estimate of parliamentary seat distribution translated from popular support during May.

Federal seat projection - April 2019

With six months to go before the upcoming federal election, the following projection was developed using a blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April. Collectively this included over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down weighted in the process. The accompanying table indicated that the Liberal Party has dropped some thirty seats since the previous LISPOP projection six months ago.