header





parliament

bar

Archived Seat Projections

Near Tie in Regionally Polarized Electorate
       
This is the first LISPOP federal seat projection in almost three months, but it portrays a similar picture to that of early April, a virtual tie in seats between the Conservatives and Liberals in a nation that is even more regionally polarized than before. Moving from east to west, Atlantic Canada is as dominated by the Liberals as Alberta usually is by the Conservatives. Quebec, while evenly split in popular support between the New Democratic Party and Liberals, leans to the NDP in seats, because of the "wasted vote" phenomenon of the Liberal-leaning Anglophone support being concentrated in a smaller number of ridings. Ontario seats are evenly split between Conservatives and Liberals, but that net effect masks dramatic differences between the large urban centres, especially Toronto, and smaller communities, as we witnessed in the recent provincial election. The Prairies indicate some Liberal momentum since 2011, but that is only evident in constituency changes in the Winnipeg area and two Edmonton seats. British Columbia provides the closest example of a three-way race in the country, but that too is complicated by regional divisions with the Liberals dominating in Vancouver and the lower mainland, the Conservatives in the Fraser Valley and interior, and the NDP on Vancouver Island. The safest conclusion to be drawn from this regional smorgasbord, is that we appear to be headed for minority government. The table below is drawn from a blended aggregate of polls conducted by Ekos, Angus Reid, Forum Research and Leger (Quebec only) conducted between May 1 and June 18 among over 8500 respondents. The 2011 results are in brackets.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released July 2, 2014

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
123(34)
127(166)
80(103)
7(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
25(12)
4(14)
3(6)
--
--
Quebec
26(7)
7(5)
38(59)
7(4)
--
Ontario
51(11)
52(73)
18(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
7(2)
17(26)
7(3)
--
--
Alberta
2(0)
30(27)
2(1)
--
--
British Columbia
12(2)
17(21)
12(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.