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Archived Seat Projections

Federal Liberals Slip in Quebec
       
While the federal Liberals maintain the lead in national popular vote they have enjoyed for some months, the number of seats they are projected to take in the newly redistributed parliament has declined somewhat. This is largely attributable to Quebec, where the New Democratic Party has regained a plurality of ridings, evaporating the Liberal lead over the NDP. The remainder of the country performs much as it has recently with the Liberals sweeping Atlantic Canada, having a smaller but steady lead in Ontario, which allows them to gain most of the constituencies in the Greater Toronto Area, a three way split in British Columbia, with Liberal pickups in the lower mainland, and Conservative dominance in Alberta and the Prairies. One obvious conclusion is that we are a long way from a parliamentary majority. These figures are based upon more than 12,000 interviews conducted from Feb. 12- March 9 by Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid and Abacus.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released April 7, 2014

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
127(34)
120(166)
81(103)
9(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
23(12)
6(14)
3(6)
--
--
Quebec
29(7)
7(5)
33(59)
9(4)
--
Ontario
53(11)
47(73)
21(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
7(2)
17(26)
7(3)
--
--
Alberta
1(0)
31(27)
2(1)
--
--
British Columbia
14(2)
12(21)
15(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.