Federal seat projection - October 2018

Visitors to the LISPOP website will note that there has been no federal seat projection since this past January. That is because there has been a scarcity of polling data upon which these projections are based. Even now they are still limited. As a result the following projection is drawn from polling data aggregated by Eric Grenier at the CBC. At other times our polling aggregation methods are somewhat different. For example, at LISPOP we typically weight the impact of polls by sample size, and down weight those conducted by IVR (robopolls), which has differed from other methodologies.

The CBC data published for October, 2018 provided a 4% national lead for the Liberals over the Conservatives. However focusing upon the regional splits, the Liberal lead in Ontario was 9%, and in Quebec 16%. Along with Atlantic Canada, these are the core of their projected parliamentary majority.

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Table 1: Federal Seat projections - October 2018 (2015 election results in brackets)

 
Canada 186 (184) 117 (99) 28 (44) 3 (10) 3 (1) 1
Atlantic 25 (32) 7 (0) - - - -
Quebec 61 (40) 8 (12) 5 (16) 3 (10) - 1
Ontario 69 (80) 42 (33) 10 (8) - - -
Prairies / North 11 (8) 18 (18) 2 (5) - - -
Alberta 3 (4) 30 (29) 1 (1) - - -
British Columbia 17 (17) 12 (10) 10 (14) - 3 (1) -

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at [email protected].

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