Election Post Mortem 2015

LISPOP has been in the practice of providing a post mortem of its seat projection since it went online for the 2004 election. It consists of two tables, the first comparing our final pre-election seat projection of October 18 with the results reported on October 20, and the projection with the actual vote results. The second table compares the aggregate regional splits in late polls used for the final projection with the popular vote totals by region.

Table 1: 2015 Final LISPOP seat projection compared with actual election results (in brackets), and projection on actual vote results (in italics)

 
Canada 140 (184) 160 115 (99) 119 79 (44) 52 3 (10) 6 1 (1) 1
Atlantic 24 (32) 30 4 (0) 1 4 (0) 1 - -
Quebec 22 (40) 40 13 (12) 11 40 (16) 21 3 (10) 6 -
Ontario 68 (80) 65 38 (33) 38 15 (8) 13 - -
Prairies-Territories 11 (8) 12 15 (18) 16 5 (5) 3 - -
Alberta 3 (4) 0 29 (29) 33 2 (1) 1 - -
British Columbia 15 (17) 13 13 (10) 15 13 (14) 13 - 1 (1) 1

Table 2: 2015 Final pre-election % popular vote estimate compared with actual election results in brackets)

 
Atlantic 59% (52) 19% (21) 18% (21) -
Quebec 36% (28) 17% (20) 25% (27) 19% (20)
Ontario 45% (44) 35% (33) 17% (19) -
Prairies-Territories 35% (33) 43% (45) 19% (20) -
Alberta 25% (27) 60% (53) 12% (15) -
British Columbia 35% (33) 31% (31) 26% (29) -

Note: The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 2009 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, entitled "A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats 1963-2008." It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.

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