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Of “wedge” issues and “outlier” polls

September 14th, 2011 ·

By Geoffrey Stevens

As the Ontario election heads into its second week, the issues are emerging. Health care (quality, availability and wait times), job creation, provincial debt, taxes, hydro rates, gasoline prices, and university tuitions are all pocketbook issues that resonate province-wide. Other issues, including the environment and transit, engage voters on at least a local or regional basis. [Read more →]

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Early Comments on the Ontario Election

August 18th, 2011 ·

By Barry Kay

Recent polls from Ipsos and Nanos conducted in early August suggest that the upcoming Ontario election on October 6 is no sure thing.  LISPOP’s July projection had placed Tim Hudak’s Conservative Party comfortably in majority government territory with 63 seats.  However the most recent projection based upon a 40% to 35% Conservative lead over the Liberals with the NDP at 20% indicates that they have dipped into minority status.  Moreover momentum, which is important in attracting public opinion, has most recently been in the direction of the Liberals.  What this really indicates is that one shouldn’t make assumptions about the election outcome, as anyone of a number of results could emerge, concerning both the leading party and whether or not it will have a working majority in the legislature.

 

 

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