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New Polls Confirm Liberal Lead, LISPOP Projection

September 14th, 2011 ·

Current polls project 52 seats to the Liberals, 37 to the Conservatives, and 18 to the NDP. Current projection (Sept. 14, 2011) is drawn from a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ipsos and Nanos conducted from Sept.7-11. The number of new respondents interviewed is only 1300, but the polls confirm trends reported in the previous LISPOP projection. The Liberal lead in popular vote is only 2%, but there were relatively few seats that the Liberals won narrowly in 2007, and hence that they are vulnerable in with the current levels of popular support. The Liberal seats potentially in jeopardy are the ones coloured grey or in muted tones on the map. These numbers indicate the Liberals are still in minority territory, but if the momentum toward them continues, they will be back in the majority range before long.

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