Quebec’s general election next week is likely to return the Parti Québécois. The last time the PQ moved from opposition to government, they launched a referendum that nearly broke the country apart. Some are comforted by the fact that the Oui forces in 1995 were led by the charismatic Lucien Bouchard, and if he couldn’t do it, then there is nothing to worry about the far less magnetic Pauline Marois, right? Let’s discuss what might be a very real possibility of Quebec separating from Canada.
Published on August 31, 2012 in Waterloo Region Record
Past conventional wisdom suggests that the Sept. 6 provincial byelection in Kitchener-Waterloo would normally be a contest between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals.
Published on August 29, 2012 in Waterloo Region Record.
Is a New Democrat win unimaginable in this riding, which has always been dominated by its highly-educated, well-paid professionals, ensconced in their leafy suburbs, routinely voting for Progressive Conservative Elizabeth Witmer the past 22 years?
Published on Monday August 27, 2012 on Global News.
A new electoral map released on Monday would give Ontario’s sprawling suburbs more representation in the House of Commons in the near future. Although determined by population growth, several of the new Ontario seats lie in areas where the Conservatives did well during the last election, areas like Brampton, Durham, Ottawa and Mississauga.
Published Aug 27, 2012 in Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury
Change is a four-letter word to politicians in power, something to be resisted, not
Outcomes of the September 6 byelections in Ontario focus a great deal of attention on the "swing voter," that is, the voter with loose partisan ties who can potentially be swayed from one party to another. This is the prize all three parties pursue, especially in Kitchener-Waterloo where there is nothing to suggest one candidate has a comfortable and wide lead. It's anybody's game, hence the race to sway the swing voter.
On this theme, I raise four questions, and locate answers based on a preliminary analysis of some data in our collection.
In a recent post, Loren provides an excellent analysis of the silly decision making process that is being used to decide school closures in Hamilton. Among many cool tidbits, he writes:
“What is troubling, however, is the uniform obsession with closures. There are a range of creative and cost-effective ways we might reconfigure and reimagine existing facilities: partial decommisions, mixed uses, or a range of potential public-private partnerships. Most boards take none of these seriously.”
Let’s turn our attention to the Quebec election. My comment is about Sunday's debate and its possible effects on the electorate. Here is the summary: The effect is probably marginal, and it is at the margins where one is likely to see most effects. The big “winner,” should there be a need to declare one, is the one leader least likely to emerge as the premier of that province in the Sept. 4 election.
Each year, I begin my Introduction to Canadian politics course at Laurier by describing the prisoner’s dilemma.
In this model, two men, Bob and Jack are arrested for drug trafficking. They are put into separate rooms and are told the following:
“If you testify against your partner, and he stays silent, you go free and your partner gets 10 years.
If your partner talks and you stay silent, then you get 10 years and he goes free.
If you both talk, you both get 8 years.