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Archived Seat Projections

Little Movement in Polls
       
Despite the spate of stories linked to the Duffy-Wright scandal in recent weeks, the poll numbers haven't shifted much since the previous projection in late October. The following projection is based upon a blended sample of over 4500 respondents from surveys conducted by Ipsos Reid, Harris-Decima and Forum Research from November 12-27. These data are based upon the final configuration of redistributed ridings from the 2011 census, that will be in place until the next census. After comparing these data with comparable figures from the interim redistribution, it can be reported that there was virtually no net difference in seat allocations. As a result, there was thought to be no reason to furnish the analogous table.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released December 5, 2013

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
138(34)
117(166)
71(103)
11(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
23(12)
5(14)
4(6)
--
--
Quebec
36(7)
6(5)
25(59)
11(4)
--
Ontario
59(11)
45(73)
17(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
8(2)
16(26)
7(3)
--
--
Alberta
0(0)
33(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
12(2)
12(21)
17(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.