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Archived Seat Projections

Liberals Edge Upward, NDP and Tories Slip
       
A seat projection based upon a blended aggregation of polls from Ekos, Ipsos Reid, Abacus, Forum Research and CROP (Quebec only) conducted from Oct. 10-29 among a weighted sample of over 9000 respondents shows the Liberals making gains from the previous projection in mid-September and the NDP and Conservatives declining. These patterns extend over most provinces, but are particularly evident in the Atlantic region, where Liberal support has soared. These polls were largely completed before the most serious charges from the senate expenses scandal were revealed. These data are based upon the interim redistributed ridings, not the final constituencies.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released October 31, 2013

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
136(34)
119(166)
72(103)
10(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
25(12)
4(14)
3(6)
--
--
Quebec
33(7)
8(5)
27(59)
10(4)
--
Ontario
55(11)
48(73)
18(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
9(2)
15(26)
7(3)
--
--
Alberta
3(0)
30(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
11(2)
14(21)
16(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.