header





parliament

bar

Archived Seat Projections

Minority Government Indicated
       
This adapted seat projection based upon a blended aggregation of polls from Harris-Decima, Nanos, Abacus, Forum Research and Leger conducted from Aug. 12-Sept. 9 among a weighted sample of over 8000 respondents indicates that the Liberals have a razor thin lead over the Conservatives, but the safest conclusion is that no party is remotely close to majority status, and the NDP would hold the balance of power. Normally we would not present a revision of such a recent projection even with the substantial addition of 2000 respondents from Harris-Decima, however are doing so in this case because the leading party has now changed as a result of the new data, even though the seat changes are slight. Regional changes from the previous projection in early July are relatively modest. This projection continues to use the interim redistribution of constituency boundaries, not the final one.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released September 18, 2013

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
125(34)
124(166)
81(103)
7(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
19(12)
7(14)
6(6)
--
--
Quebec
35(7)
7(5)
29(59)
7(4)
--
Ontario
54(11)
48(73)
19(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
7(2)
16(26)
8(3)
--
--
Alberta
1(0)
32(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
9(2)
14(21)
18(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.