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Archived Seat Projections

Liberal Momentum Abates
       
A spate of polls conducted by Ipsos, Abacus, Nanos, Forum Research and Leger at the close of the parliamentary session, indicate that the dramatic Liberal surge over the previous four months seems to have come to an end. The aggregated surveys including over 6000 respondents shows that the Liberals would still hold a narrow lead in House of Commons seats if an election had been held in late June, but their momentum has declined in every region, and even receded somewhat. This projection is based upon the interim redistribution of federal constituencies.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released July 9, 2013

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
131(34)
128(166)
70(103)
8(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
22(12)
6(14)
4(6)
--
--
Quebec
39(7)
5(5)
26(59)
8(4)
--
Ontario
52(11)
51(73)
18(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
5(2)
20(26)
6(3)
--
--
Alberta
2(0)
31(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
11(2)
15(21)
15(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.