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Archived Seat Projections

Federal Liberals Near Majority Standing
       
A seat projection based on a blending and weighting of polls from Leger Marketing, Ipsos Reid and Forum Research conducted between May 21 and June 19 among over 4000 respondents indicate that a popular surge by the Liberals has continued over the past four months, and now places the party close to a parliamentary majority. During this period LISPOP has issued four projections which have featured a consistent pattern of Liberal gains in each of the six regional classifications over each succeeding projection. One explanation for this phenomenon is the presence of Justin Trudeau as party leader, but the trend actually preceded his selection. The largest Liberal seat increase in the past month was noted in Quebec, but the party continues to gain in all regions, including the once impregnable Conservative bastion of Alberta where the Liberals are now positioned to pick up five seats in newly redistributed areas of Edmonton and Calgary. Note: This projection is based upon the provisional, not the final boundaries of redistribution.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released June 26, 2013

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
166(34)
113(166)
55(103)
3(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
25(12)
4(14)
3(6)
--
--
Quebec
56(7)
4(5)
15(59)
3(4)
--
Ontario
61(11)
45(73)
15(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
7(2)
17(26)
7(3)
--
--
Alberta
5(0)
28(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
12(2)
15(21)
14(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.