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Archived Seat Projections

Federal Liberals Continue Surge into First Place
       
A seat projection based upon three polls in late April and the beginning of May indicate that the Liberals continue the previous trend of improving their support level in every region of the country, and have now surpassed the Conservatives. These data are drawn from a blending and weighting of polls from Ekos, Ipsos and Harris-Decima conducted between April 18 and May 2, among over 4000 respondents. Most of the Liberal seat gains were in Ontario and Quebec, but the polls were held before the impact of the recent Senate scandal had occurred. It should be noted that the constituency template used in this study, does not reflect the final boundaries that will exist in the 2015 federal election.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released May 22, 2013

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
137(34)
120(166)
72(103)
8(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
23(12)
4(14)
5(6)
--
--
Quebec
41(7)
5(5)
24(59)
8(4)
--
Ontario
54(11)
50(73)
17(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
6(2)
17(26)
8(3)
--
--
Alberta
2(0)
31(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
11(2)
13(21)
17(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.