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Archived Seat Projections

Liberals Rebound to Second Place
       
The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Nanos, Ipsos, Abacus, Forum Research and Leger conducted between March 25- April 8 among over 6000 respondents. These surveys occurred prior to the announcement of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader, however that contest might very well have provided a backdrop for the Liberal Party resurgence, vaulting them past the NDP into second place. As in the previous LISPOP projection, the Liberals gained popular vote share and seats in every region, even including Alberta. In Quebec Liberal gains were largely at the expense of New Democrats, and in Atlantic Canada and Ontario at the expense of Conservatives. It should be remembered that these calculations utilized the interim constituency boundaries from the 2011 census, not the final ones.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released April 16, 2013

  conservative ndp liberal bq
Other
Canada
136(166)
89(103)
98(34)
14(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
7(14)
6(6)
19(12)
--
--
Quebec
7(5)
34(59)
23(7)
14(4)
--
Ontario
58(73)
22(22)
41(11)
--
--
Prairies & North
15(26)
9(3)
7(2)
--
--
Alberta
32(27)
1(1)
1(0)
--
--
British Columbia
17(21)
17(12)
7(2)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.