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Archived Seat Projections

Conservatives Slip While Liberals Rebound
       
The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of almost 12,000 respondents drawn from Ekos, Abacus, Nanos, Forum Research, CROP and Leger (Quebec only) conducted between Jan. 26-Feb. 18. In the month since the late-January LISPOP projection, Conservative popular support dropped in every region, as did their projected seat total in every region but Alberta. Most of those seats went to the Liberals, most markedly in Ontario, and the overall numbers more closely resemble the proportions of the projection preceding that in November 2012. These figures are not based upon the final seat redistribution, but rather the provisional boundaries. The Northern seats are included with the Prairie figures.

Projected distribution of seats by party and region compared with actual election results (in brackets), released March 1, 2013

  liberal conservative ndp bq
Other
Canada
73(34)
146(166)
106(103)
12(4)
1(1)
Atlantic provinces
16(12)
10(14)
6(6)
--
--
Quebec
14(7)
6(5)
46(59)
12(4)
--
Ontario
34(11)
61(73)
26(22)
--
--
Prairies & North
4(2)
18(26)
9(3)
--
--
Alberta
0(0)
33(27)
1(1)
--
--
British Columbia
5(2)
18(21)
18(12)
--
1(1)

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.