The U.S. presidential election and the Brexit referendum are the most recent prominent examples of the shortcomings within the polling industry. They are by no means unusual or isolated illustrations. Indeed we have witnessed some provincial elections in Canada, notably in Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, where late pre-election polls have also been substantially off the mark.
LISPOP in the news
The political earthquake of Donald Trump's stunning victory on Nov. 8, was greeted with surprised relief by most Republican elected officials.
It was a quirky victory based upon less than 85,000 votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while he was losing the overall popular vote by more than 200,000.
Loren King sees a few new wrinkles in his bathing trunks.
"In a few days, I'm going to be 48," said the Wilfrid Laurier University associate professor of political science, pondering his looming attempt to cross Lake Ontario in the first days of August.
"I'm an old guy for this swimming business."...
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It is generally a mistake to confuse style with substance in politics.
There are times, however, when style serves to highlight and reinforce substance, by imparting a sense of urgency and personal commitment to what might otherwise be passed off as a routine, everyday message.
It is conventional wisdom in American elections, that vice-presidential candidates are rarely pivotal, and then only that a poor candidate (as with Sarah Palin) might detract from a campaign.
The most commonly cited exception would be 1960 when Lyndon Johnson helped Kennedy carry Texas, but even in that case his home state alone wouldn't have altered the result.