Harper has trust issues with MPs, SCOC

Published Feb. 8, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Stephen Harper doesn’t like Parliament very much, to put it politely. He is certainly not the first prime minister to harbor dark thoughts about the institution and its inmates (Pierre Trudeau comes to mind), and he won’t be the last, but Harper carries his disdain to a higher level. Even though he has a majority government – and thereby has effective control over everything Parliament does – he does not trust the place or its members.

Bill C-51, the government’s new anti-terrorism legislation, is a case in point. Given the importance that the government attaches to the bill, it should have been presented first to elected representatives in Parliament. Instead, Harper went off-site, to a Tory-friendly political rally in Richmond Hill; he’d pulled the same stunt before with the government’s fiscal updates.

Bill C-51 raises two issues that need to be addressed by Parliament. First, do the security agencies really need increased powers?  Are the powers already vested in the Criminal Code and other federal statutes truly inadequate? Second, who will watch the watchers? What sort of oversight will be put in place to ensure that the new powers are not abused?

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For example, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service is our national spy agency. It gathers intelligence on groups and individuals that it believes may be a threat to national security. Bill C-51 would increase the scope of CSIS from spy agency to secret police. Not only would it gather information and monitor suspicious activities, it would have new powers to disrupt those activities.

Currently, such oversight as there is of CSIS is entrusted to the grossly underfunded Security Intelligence Review Committee (SIRC), a five-member body that until recently was chaired by the notorious Dr. Arthur Porter, a patronage appointee chosen by the prime minister; at last report, Porter was in jail in Panama fighting extradition to Montreal to face major fraud charges, his wife already having pleaded guilty.

The case for parliamentary or legislative oversight is compelling. That’s the way it is done in Washington, Britain and Australia where all-party committees of elected representatives, meeting in private, review the operations of the spy services. Those committees are accountable to Congress or Parliament. The system is not perfect, but it is preferable to leaving oversight to a shadowy group like SIRC, which appears to be accountable to no one.

Parliamentary oversight is not going to happen in Ottawa. Harper has made it clear through his parliamentary secretary that he is happy with the system as it exists. He is not about to give authority to MPs who, heaven forbid, might want to ask to ask him questions he wouldn’t want to answer – just as, a few years ago he refused to answer questions about the costs of new prisons and the F-35 fighter aircraft program.

Parliament is not the only Ottawa institution that Harper dislikes. The list is quite long, but the Supreme Court of Canada would be near the top. It frustrates him. He has appointed seven of the nine members of the current court – and where is their loyalty, their gratitude? They no sooner don their ermine-trimmed robes than they turn on him.

Last year they prevented him from appointing Marc Nadon, a Federal Court judge whose conservative bent he liked, on the ground that, as the government well knew, he was not eligible for the Supreme Court. Harper didn’t like that at all.

Last week, the court opened an issue that Harper very much wanted to avoid: the right to doctor-assisted suicide. Reversing a ruling it had made 21 years ago in the Sue Rodriguez case, the court ruled that desperately ill Canadians have a constitutional right to assistance to end their lives. The decision was unanimous, 9-0, all seven Harper appointees supporting the ruling.

The court set down a number of safeguards and gave the Conservatives one year to write a new law. It was not a message Harper wanted to hear in election year.

You should enjoy the decline in gas prices while you can

Published Feb. 5, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record. 

It goes without saying that the dramatic decline of energy prices, and the related drop in the Canadian dollar, affects different sections of the country in various ways.

What is challenging for the government in balancing the federal budget is terrible for Alberta’s oilpatch, but is good for consumers in Ontario and in much of eastern Canada, who will average close to $1,000 savings per family on transportation and heating costs. While the most obvious manifestation is the dramatic price drop of gasoline at the pumps, the implications are much broader.

Canadian government tax revenue is reduced markedly, leading to a postponement in the federal budget while Finance Minister Joe Oliver prays for a reversal in this trend.

Read more.

Tories bask in momentum and good luck

Published Feb. 2, 2015, in the Guelph Mercury.

Never write off the incumbent. Never underestimate the resiliency of the party in power or its willingness to employ the tools of office to drive a wedge into a divided opposition or to exploit the weakness or uncertainty of its opponents. Not least, never discount the ability of the people who sit in the driver’s seat to create their own luck. Opposition parties have to wait for the government to make mistakes; a government has the weapons to force opposition parties to make crippling mistakes.

We are seeing this in election year 2015. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is regarded by his opponents as being manipulative, cynical, hypocritical and unscrupulous (among other negative adjectives). He may be all of those things, but he is also very good at what he does best – playing no-prisoners politics. He is also lucky, very lucky. Continue reading

Less than two years ago, the Conservatives were in dire straits. They were desperately hanging onto second place in the polls, so behind the Liberals that they could barely see the taillights of Justin Trudeau’s vintage Mercedes. The question wasn’t whether the Liberals would win the election, but how badly the Tories would lose it. The question wasn’t whether Harper would survive as leader, but how soon he would depart.

Their twin planks, sound economic management and law and order, weren’t giving them any traction. The economy was recovering and the crime rate was declining, but neither helped the Conservatives’ numbers. And Harper remained deeply unpopular. He was not responsible for the collapse of world oil prices – we can blame the Saudis, if we wish – but the decline in the value of crude from more than $100 a barrel to less than $50 exposed the hollowness of the Harper claim to be building Canada into an energy super power.

So did the government’s inability to persuade the United States to approve the Keystone XL pipeline, despite nagging and mildly threatening the Obama administration. As the price of oil plunged, so did the government’s revenues. When the price was at $81 a barrel, it thought could still avoid running a deficit. When it reached $50, it didn’t know what to do. Rather than admit that, it postponed the budget until April or later, if only to give the chefs in the finance department time to cook the books enough to pass inspection by the electorate.

The Tories’ claim to be world-class financial managers may have been in tatters, but just when the picture seemed bleakest, Harper got a stroke of good luck. It seems indecent to suggest that the murder of Canadian servicemen in Ottawa and Quebec, the menace of ISIS and other international terrorists, including the savage beheading of hostages, represent good luck for anyone, but it did, politically for Harper. He played his law and order card as an anti-terrorism card, as he declared war on the “jihadis.”

Interestingly, he went to Richmond Hill, not Parliament Hill, to announce his new anti-terrorism measures – to a Tory-friendly, campaign-style rally last week. Veteran lawyers may suggest the new powers are not needed because there are already powers enough in the Criminal Code while civil liberties experts contend the legislation will place individual rights in jeopardy.

Harper was having none of that as he portrayed his critics as bleeding-heart fence-sitters: “This is really what we get from our opposition, that every time we talk about security, they suggest that somehow, our freedoms are threatened … I think Canadians understand that, more often than not, their freedom and security go hand in hand … We do not buy the argument that every time you protect Canadians you somehow take away their liberties.”

Harper is on a roll. New vote projections suggest he will win at least a minority government. Momentum and more good luck could carry him to a majority. But luck is fickle and momentum is transitory. Harper knows that. It’s why I think he will call an election this spring.

Uber decision may be out of region’s hands

Published Jan. 28, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Uber, the popular “ride-sharing” smartphone application, wants to come to Waterloo Region.

The San Francisco-based company has created a business model that effectively shirks municipal taxi regulations and connects passengers and drivers through mobile devices.

The proposed arrival of Uber shouldn’t come as a surprise. The company now operates in more than 200 cities in 45 countries. Setting up shop in Waterloo may only be a matter of time.

Read more. 

Why Makayla Sault was allowed to die

Published Jan. 27, 2015, in the Toronto Star

Like many Canadians, I was saddened to hear about the death of Makayla Sault, the 11-year-old girl who died after choosing traditional aboriginal medicine over chemotherapy to treat her leukemia. Unlike the majority of commentators in the media, however, I was not outraged by her death or by the refusal of the courts to choose provincial legislation over Aboriginal rights. Instead, this outcome was simply the logical product of how Canada has chosen to balance and protect different and competing individual and group rights.

The Charter of Rights and Freedoms gives all of us a set of individual rights by virtue of being citizens of Canada. At the same time, some Canadian citizens enjoy additional rights that accrue to them on the basis of their membership in one or more demographic or cultural groups. For instance, French-speaking Canadians have the right to communicate with the federal government in French whereas I, as a Filipino-Canadian, do not have the right to use Tagalog, a Filipino dialect, to do the same.

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Francophone rights are not the only group rights protected by our constitutional and legal order. Others include gender, religion and Aboriginal rights, all of which seek to protect historically vulnerable groups in ways unique to each case.

Aboriginal rights have particularly complex origins, rooted as they are in the many historical and modern treaties signed with the Crown, but also in a number of pre- and post-Confederation constitutional documents like the Royal Proclamation of 1763 and the Constitution Act of 1982. As a result, Aboriginal rights empower their holders with a unique legal and moral basis to protect their traditional and evolving cultures, customs and internal constitutional orders in a myriad of ways. In Canadian law, we refer to this basis as Aboriginal self-government or self-determination.

So, in the case of Makayla Sault and other similar situations, legislation like the Child and Family Service Act can rightly and justly be ignored by Indigenous community leaders and members. The special group rights that Indigenous groups have through Canada’s Constitution and through their treaties with us means that they have the right to make unilateral decisions affecting their communities and members within the confines of their traditional and evolving customs and practices.

In many ways, then, the death of Makayla Sault is not as outrageous and illogical as most mainstream commentators portray. Instead, it very accurately reflects a legal and political reality that is consistent with Canada’s approach to human rights. Our country recognizes that all Canadians, including Indigenous peoples, have individual and group rights, and that different groups, by virtue of their inherent differences, also have different or asymmetrical sets of rights.

Some Canadians may chafe at this analysis and see it as being the root of the “Aboriginal problem” in this country. All of us, however, need to realize and accept this logic if we hope to build a respectful and just relationship with Indigenous peoples. This is especially true if we believe that the multicultural and multinational character of Canada is worth protecting.

A landscape of broken political promises

Published Jan. 26, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury.

Canadians are cynical about politicians and their promises, especially in election season. Their cynicism is not without cause.

Take Toronto’s new mayor, John Tory. Campaigning for office last fall, Tory declared that he would freeze transit fares for at least the first year of his term. But, oops, last week, in his first budget, Tory announced a 10-cent increase in TTC fares.

Did he lie in the campaign? Or, to use a less pejorative term, did he (knowingly or unknowingly) mislead the electorate about his intentions? Or was his intent pure, but he was forced to reverse himself when he learned facts of which he had not previously been aware? Tory chose the last-mentioned defence, saying he did not realize how bad things were at the TTC until after he assumed office. Continue reading

That’s the same defence Dalton McGuinty had used a decade earlier. He promised in the 2003 Ontario provincial election that his Liberals, if entrusted with office, would not increase taxes. But once elected, he discovered, or said he discovered, that the previous Progressive Conservative government, had been running a massive hidden deficit. So the Liberals had no choice but to raise taxes, which they did in their first budget by levying a whopping new “health premium.”

The broken promise dogged McGuinty throughout his first term as premier. John Tory will have less grief with his broken promise on transit fares. The increase is modest, most Torontonians want improved public transit, they realize the TTC has been starved for funds, and, besides, they are delighted, as the Toronto Star observed, just to have mayor who shows up for work sober.

The political landscape is littered with broken promises. Back in the 1960s, the Liberal prime minister of the day, Lester Pearson, promised to introduce a universal, comprehensive, publicly administered, national health insurance plan – medicare, as we know it today. The start date would be July 1, 1967 – Canada’s 100th birthday.

Problem was, by 1966, the government’s finances were in a wobbly state. The Liberal left wing, led by Walter Gordon, insisted that the promise of July 1, 1967, had to be honoured. The right wing, led by Mitchell Sharp, argued that the introduction had to be put off. The two sides battled it out at the Liberal party’s national convention in the fall of 1966. The Sharp forces won, the promise was broken, and medicare was put off until July 1, 1968.

In the 1993 election, Jean Chrétien promised that, if elected, a Liberal government would scrap the hated goods and services tax. The Liberals won, but the GST survived; no prime minister in his right senses would have slaughtered such a cash cow. Did Chrétien appreciate this during the campaign? Of course, he did. Did he lie to the electorate? Well, let’s be charitable and say he misled it.

The same argument can be made about the elections of 1984 and 2006. In 1984, Conservative leader Brian Mulroney promised to stamp out patronage in the federal government. The promise proved to be a huge joke, as Mulroney presided over the most patronage-obsessed government in Canadian history. Same thing in 2006. Stephen Harper was going to run a patronage-free government. Once elected, he set off to join Mulroney atop Patronage Mountain.

Harper has problems with promises again as he gears up for a general election this year. (I think it will be before summer.) Suffering perhaps from a deficit-elimination fetish, he is still promising a balanced budget in fiscal 2015-16, despite the collapse of world oil prices, which the Conference Board of Canada reckons will cost Ottawa $4.3 billion in revenue. But the Conservatives rashly went ahead and promised $4.6 billion in new tax reductions and increased spending (income-splitting for parents and an expanded child tax credit).

Some, maybe all, of these promises – balanced budget, lower taxes and higher spending – will have to be broken. How Harper will navigate through this minefield could be the story of Election 2015.

Tories would benefit the most from a snap election in the spring

Published Jan. 19, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury.

This may seem counter-intuitive, but I think the government’s decision to postpone its annual budget until April or later is a signal that Stephen Harper is seriously considering a snap election this spring.

Consider the scenario. The Conservatives have been moving at a measured pace toward a general election on Oct. 19. The electoral pieces were being put in place. So confident was the government of its fiscal projections that it started to spend its anticipated 2015 surplus before it had the revenue in hand. Back in October, it locked in $4.6 billion in new tax and spending commitments (for income-splitting for parents and an expanded child tax credit). Continue reading

About the same time, world oil prices started to crater. By the time Finance Minister Joe Oliver presented his fiscal update in November, the price of crude was down to $81 a barrel. Not to worry, Oliver said.  Oil will bounce back.  It didn’t, of course. By last week, crude was down to $48, knocking the government’s revenue projections into a cocked hat. Canada won’t be an energy super power, as the Tories like to boast, any time soon.

The government won’t be able to afford income-splitting or the child tax credit, let alone any new election goodies. It will have to struggle just to sustain existing services without tax increases or more program cuts – or a return to deficit financing.

That would mean presenting a bad-news budget in February or March (the usual budget months). Caught between a rock and a hard place, Oliver (meaning Harper) postponed the budget. They say they need more time to gather economic information.

aybe. But I suspect they want time to retool their election strategy. It could go something like this. Around the end of February, Harper announces that world conditions have changed so dramatically, both in terms of the global energy picture and in terms of the international terrorist threat, that he needs a fresh mandate to provide strong leadership on these issues. There is no easy path. The return to a surplus will have to wait, as will tax breaks for Canadian families. The government will also be asking Canadians to support a package of tough anti-terrorism laws to make sure a Charlie Hebdo massacre never happens here. The election will be held in late April or early May. A budget will follow some time thereafter.

As a strategy, it plays to Conservative strengths – the perception that Tories are strong managers and wise stewards of the economy, along with their image of being implacable foes of criminals and especially terrorists. An April/May election would be fought on the basis of the challenges that will be facing the government and nation rather than on the record of Harper’s decade in office. Chances are even the Mike Duffy trial, due to begin in April, would get lost in election crossfire. Who really cares about a piddling Senate expense scandal at a time when the economy and the safety of Canadians are at issue?

Recent opinion polls offer support for a spring election. After trailing for two years, the Conservatives have pulled even with the Liberals in most polls, and last week a new Ipsos Reid poll put them four points ahead – 35 per cent to 31. This trend is not yet established, and 35 per cent is only enough for a minority government. Political analysts generally agree that, given the distribution of seats, a party needs about 38 per cent for a bare majority.

With their current momentum, a majority could be within the Tories’ reach this spring. The question Conservatives are asking themselves is this: Would it not be smarter to go now when the polls look promising rather than spend the spring and summer defending a bad-news budget, cutting spending, worrying about what the Saudi-led cartel may do with the price of oil, and watching anxiously for new terrorist eruptions?

By comparison, an election would be a stroll in the park.

France can no longer ignore Islamic alienation

Published Jan. 14, 2015, in The Waterloo Region Record.

One should be appalled but hardly surprised by last week’s jihadist attacks in Paris.

This has been only the latest and most outrageous of a series of assaults occurring internationally in the cause of trying to incite conflict between the Islamic world and western modernity. That France was the site of these most recent provocations does have some particular implications, however.

It is the western nation with the largest Muslim population and proportion (about eight per cent) and until now has seemed to be the one most dedicated to ignoring potential problems from that source.

The days of sweeping Islamic alienation under the carpet are probably at an end, as free speech in the media has become the focus of the debate and national values are now at stake. Moreover, the spectre of Marine Le Pen and the far-right National Front looms to concentrate the minds of France’s mainstream politicians.

Read more.

Is Lady Luck smiling on the Tories?

Published Jan. 12, 2015, in The Waterloo Region Record.

Politics is like warfare in at least one sense. When you are lucky, even your enemies (or political opponents) conspire to assist you.

We’ve seen a lot of that in Canadian politics in recent times. Good luck gave Kathleen Wynne a majority government in Ontario last year when her principal opponent, Tim Hudak, promised to fire 100,000 provincial public servants if his Progressive Conservatives were elected. His campaign went dead on the spot. Wynne did not have to push Hudak. He jumped off that cliff all by himself.

Luck made Stephen Harper prime minister. It had nothing to do with his exciting personality, dazzling policies or love of The Beatles. It had everything to do with the sponsorship scandal, which cut the Liberals to a minority government in 2004, then handed to keys to Parliament Hill to Harper and the Conservatives in 2006.

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For a while, their luck continued as the Liberals made flawed leadership choices with Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. But lady luck is a fickle dame. No sooner had the Tories secured their coveted majority in 2011 than she turned on them. A series of misadventures, most of them avoidable and self-inflicted, brought them so far down in the polls that they were barely able to stay ahead of the third-place New Democrats. There was the Senate scandal and coverup, F-35 fiasco, prorogation of Parliament to avoid opposition questions, misuse of public funds for partisan advertising, attacks on the chief justice, auditor general and other public servants, and the cavalier treatment of military veterans, to name just a few.

These things added up to a portrait in the public mind of a government that had grown arrogant, insensitive, out of touch, indifferent to public concerns, and careless with the taxpayers’ money.

The Liberals could scarcely believe their good luck. It was no accident that when they came to choose a new leader, they chose one who was the antithesis of Harper in important ways. The public liked what the party saw in Justin Trudeau, and for the 21 months since he became leader, the Liberals have led in the polls.

In recent months, however, the polls have tightened as the election, due in October, approaches. The Liberals’ luck is waning. Excitement over Trudeau is yielding to doubts about his gravitas and lack of political experience. Economic concerns are bubbling up, especially over the future of the energy sector as crude oil prices continue to fall. Does it make sense, voters ask, to change governments when so much is in flux in an uncertain world? What could the Liberals do that the Conservatives aren’t already doing?

Lady luck came to the Tories’ aid again in October when the shooting on Parliament Hill raised security concerns to the top of the public mind. With its anti-crime agenda, the Harper Conservatives “own” the security issue. It had already sent CF-18s to fight ISIS in Iraq. Now it was presented with perfect conditions to promote its legislative ambitions for more weapons to combat terrorists and terrorism at home.

Although much of that “war” is political rhetoric or propaganda, there is little the opposition parties can do. If the NDP or Liberals criticize the government, they risk being labelled soft on terrorism, and the Tories would brand them that way in a nanosecond.

The massacre at Charlie Hebdo, the satirical magazine in Paris, last week, could have profound impact on the federal election here, especially if other outrages follow. As prime minister, Harper has the platform, which he quickly used to declare his commitment to a global war against the “international jihadist movement.” The next round of polls will, I am sure, show a bump in Conservative support.

Again, what can his opponents do but echo the prime minister? They won’t be happy about it. They know Harper has just drawn a royal flush in what is potentially the biggest political jackpot of the year.

Ideology and Political Science: Diversity Matters!

I hate ideology.  Or at least, I’m suspicious of people who are extremely sure and confident about their ideological beliefs.

The discipline of political science is very ideological.  I know from first hand experience that academics like to sort different scholars into different ideological camps, usually based on superficial information (e.g. where you went to school or who you co-authored with) or the reading of only one publication.  Where do I fall? Most believe I’m a hard core right-winger, based on my association with Tom Flanagan (because he was my MA supervisor and we co-authored some books and articles in the past). Yet, the reality is, I’m ideologically confused! Continue reading

People are usually very surprised to hear that.  They would rather have you fall neatly into one of three ideological camps: left, right, or centre (the latter of which my buddy Chris Cochrane will show in his forthcoming book, is not the middle position that people assume it is!).  Last year or so, I participated on a panel for Steve Paikin’s, tv show, The Agenda.  One of the panelists was a very popular and well-known Aboriginal scholar.  Throughout the taping, this person was very cold and detached towards me, right from the first time we met.  By the end, however, he had warmed up considerably, even remarking to me that “you weren’t quite what I expected.”

In any event, I don’t trust ideological certainty and indeed, I value scholarly uncertainty because it facilitates meaningful knowledge production.  Indeed, in my view, an ideal scholarly environment is one where you are surrounded by people who inhabit all parts of the left-right divide but who are open to discussion, debate, and, dare I say it, changing their mind in the face of empirical evidence and logically-sound argument. Surprisingly, however, not all departments agree.

Recently, a number of prominent psychologists published a piece in Behavioural and Brain Sciences that confirms many of my beliefs on this topic. Although the authors are talking about social psychological science, my hunch is that their findings also apply to the discipline of political science in Canada.  Below is the abstract:

Abstract: Psychologists have demonstrated the value of diversity—particularly diversity of viewpoints—for enhancing creativity, discovery, and problem solving. But one key type of viewpoint diversity is lacking in academic psychology in general and social psychology in particular: political diversity. This article reviews the available evidence and finds support for four claims: 1) Academic psychology once had considerable political diversity, but has lost nearly all of it in the last 50 years; 2) This lack of political diversity can undermine the validity of social psychological science via mechanisms such as the embedding of liberal values into research questions and methods, steering researchers away from important but politically unpalatable research topics, and producing conclusions that mischaracterize liberals and conservatives alike; 3) Increased political diversity would improve social psychological science by reducing the impact of bias mechanisms such as confirmation bias, and by empowering dissenting minorities to improve the quality of the majority’s thinking; and 4) The underrepresentation of nonliberals in social psychology is most likely due to a combination of self-selection, hostile climate, and discrimination. We close with recommendations for increasing political diversity in social psychology.

Check out the article here.

Polls and Leadership Races

The media loves a good leadership race. Why shouldn’t they? They’re exciting. While we’ve mostly moved away from delegated conventions that could last well into the evening and camps of engaged party members moved with candidates across the convention floor, shifting party dynamics and tense inter-party divisions are found in every race and capture the public’s attention.

The ongoing Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race is no different. Since Tim Hudak stepped down after the last election, political observers have speculated on who could be the next leader of the Ontario PCs. Continue reading

Polling companies have tried to provide us with some insight and have done polling in July, August and November, trying to get a handle on the race. Most recently, Forum has done another poll here.

The problem with all of this, however, is that none of these polls actually surveyed members of the Ontario PC party – the exact group of people who will be voting for the new leader. In every case, the general public, or those who identify as PC “supporters” have been asked for their thoughts on the leadership contestants.

There is some value to this method. Whoever is chosen by the PCs should have the broad support of the public if they ever want to be elected Premier. In this sense, it does matter what the public thinks. However, they are not selecting the PCs new leader. Public support is, of course, one of the criteria that members will use to judge leadership candidates. Members will be concerned with a variety of other factors though, such as caucus support, the relationship with party officials and riding presidents, and, of course, candidate platforms. None of which we can judge if we are not polling party members.

By not polling party members it does not mean that companies like Forum are lazy or unskilled. They don’t have access to party membership lists. These lists are confidential and sharing them with a third party would certainly violate the personal privacy of PC members. It is understandable why the Ontario PCs wouldn’t share these lists with Forum, leaving the company with little choice but to survey those who are not party members.

The problem is that the media don’t always seem to pick up on this. Headlines such as “Elliot Overwhelming Favourite in PC Race, Poll Says” are misleading in that they don’t really give us insight into how members view the race. In fact, we have no idea whether Elliot is leading or not. Those close to the race presume she is, but without surveying actual party members, we don’t know.

Unless the PC Party voluntarily hands over its membership list, we aren’t going to get a true sense of who is leading. We’ll find out when the results are announced at the PC convention. Until then, we’re all just speculating, including the media.

There’s more to Justin than his famous surname

Published Jan. 5, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

People who lead public lives write their memoirs for assorted reasons. Some of the reasons are good ones – for example, to share details of an important life. Or to provide important details or fresh insights to fill gaps in the historical record.

In other cases, the motives are less noble. Pure ego would be one of them. Another would be a desire to twist the record to make it reflect more kindly on the memoirist. Continue reading

Conrad Black used his 2011 memoir, “A Matter of Principle,” to try to settle scores with his corporate enemies who fed him to the U.S. justice system and thence to prison. Brian Mulroney took a different tack: legacy enhancement by omission. Not once in his 1,015-page doorstopper, “Brian Mulroney: Memoirs,” did he mention Karlheinz Schreiber, his erstwhile friend and lobbyist who became the central figure in the Airbus scandal. And, of course, there was no mention of the $300,000 in cash that Schreiber slipped to the former prime minister in a series of hotel room meetings.

Justin Trudeau’s new book is in a different category. Entitled “Common Ground,” it is an attempt to add some substance to the Liberal leader’s thin political resume. Many ambitious politicians have produced memoirs for the similar purposes, including Barack Obama (“Dreams from My Father”) and Hillary Clinton (“Hard Choices”).

Trudeau’s memoir is not the self-serving treacle that one might have expected. Conservatives won’t agree, but it is actually quite a good book. Those who take the trouble to read it will discover there is more to Justin than a famous surname, a good head of hair and an easy way with people, especially younger ones. He has ideas and commitment. His limited experience in practical politics is offset by a powerful work ethic and an instinct for retail politics – meeting people, listening to what they have to say, relating to their concerns, and working crowds.

It’s an instinct inherited from his outgoing mother Margaret, whose father Jimmy Sinclair, a federal minister in the St. Laurent era, was one of the great retail politicians of his time. Justin did not inherit it from his cerebral (and surprisingly shy) father Pierre, who had learned how to command crowds but was never entirely comfortable with voters in groups large or small.

Justin combines some of the best of each parent. From Margaret he got warmth; from Pierre a commitment to signature values, including a strong central government and a conviction that Canada’s strength, not its weakness, lies in its differences, in the diversity of its people.

But he recognizes that his father was not always right. His National Energy Program was a mistake: “The NEP ended up inciting precisely the kind of division my father had fought his whole life to bridge, in Quebec and elsewhere.” And Justin attributes the Liberals’ spectacular fall from grace in the disastrous 2011 election to, in part, Pierre Trudeau’s failure to nurture the party’s grass roots during his years as leader.

That’s an omission Justin is determined not to repeat. His priority is to build the party from the ground up. That’s what the Conservatives have done over the past decade. “The Conservative party owes its success to the ardent devotion of its grassroots,” Trudeau writes, “but Mr. Harper has turned it into a vehicle for the perpetuation of his prime ministership.”

The crucial difference between his Liberals and Harper’s Conservatives is the Liberals seek to solve political issues by finding common ground among people and regions, while the Conservatives do not. “Their approach is to exploit divisions rather than bridge them,” Trudeau writes. “Perhaps that’s an effective political strategy, but it’s a lousy way to govern a country, especially one as diverse as ours. Once you’ve divided people against one another – East against West, urban against rural, Quebec against the rest of Canada – so you can win an election, it’s very hard to pull them back together again to solve our shared problems.”

Harper must learn to get along with others

Published Dec. 29, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Stephen Harper is a stolid sort. He will never be the kind sort of politician who radiates unbridled energy or rousing enthusiasm. Even so, he seems flat, worn down perhaps, in his public appearances of late. I’m thinking of his year-end interviews, his Christmas message to Canadians and other occasions when he has been on television over the holidays. He looks tired.

And why shouldn’t he? He’s been at it, national politics, for 21 years; a national party leader – Canadian Alliance first, then Conservative party – for 12 years; he’s fought four national elections, winning three of them; and he’s been prime minister for nearly nine, often difficult, years.

Even Mackenzie King, who did it longer than anyone else, would have trouble matching Harper’s record in this media-obsessed age. Continue reading

As 2015 begins, Harper has to gird himself to fight another general election on Oct. 19, and he knows the odds are against his emerging with another majority Conservative government, and that his chances of retaining a minority may be no better than 50-50. He would not be human if he were not asking himself if the game is worth the candle.

Of course, he says he intends to fight on, and we have to accept that he means it. He knows his great asset is not his government’s record, which cuts both ways, but the divided opposition. As long as he can keep the Liberals and New Democrats at each other’s throats, the Conservatives can win. If they ever get their acts together, the Harper era will be over and Harper himself will go down as more of a manager and manipulator than a visionary leader.

On the off-chance that the prime minister may be interested in burnishing his legacy, here are a few utterly gratuitous suggestions for the new year.

Restore parliamentary democracy at least to the state it was before he took office. Harper might take a page from a speech delivered in Charlottetown last month by Stephen Lewis, the humanitarian, former United Nations ambassador and former Ontario NDP leader.

“You can have deep ideological rifts across the floor of the House of Commons, and still manage to effect good, positive social change,” Lewis said. “But a vital requirement is respect: vitriolic nastiness in debate does not breed respect, nor does adolescent partisanship, nor do pieces of legislation of encyclopedic length that hide contentious issues, nor does the
sudden emergence of frenzied TV attack ads, nor does the spectre of a Prime Minister’s Office exercising authoritarian control. A legislature that functions with respect accomplishes a great deal.”

In other words, the people who sit across the aisle in Parliament are opponents; they are not mortal enemies. Treat them with the respect they deserve. Argue when you disagree, but remember they are also essential participants in our system. Stop sending out attack-trained parliamentary secretaries to savage opposition members when they try to do their job of holding ministers to account in Question Period. Stop trying to deceive Parliament by bootlegging important measures in huge omnibus bills. Stop flooding the airwaves with attack ads that insult the intelligence of the Canadian electorate. Stop trying to keep PMO control over everything that matters, and over some things that don’t matter at all.

To which, one might add, try to get along with others whose purpose, like the prime minister’s, is to serve Canada. The list is long. It includes the premier of Ontario and the chief justice of the Supreme Court of Canada, neither of whom gets the respect she deserves from the prime minister. It also includes the parliamentary budget officer, auditor general, information commissioner and chief electoral officer – four officials whose mandate is to serve Parliament even if it puts them at odds with the PMO.

Is there any chance Harper would heed such transformative advice? I fear not. The road to election day is a long one. Unfortunately it does not pass through Damascus.

Ontario, Quebec voters likely to decide 2015 election

Published Dec. 22, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

As the country approaches federal election year 2015, only two things appear certain.

First, the 42nd Canadian general election will be held as scheduled on Oct. 19. That’s what the law provides, and, although the prime minister can change the date by cabinet order, Stephen Harper made it reasonably clear in his year-end interviews that he is as unlikely to do that as he is to grant Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne an audience any time soon. (That is to say, any time before hell freezes over. But I digress.)

The second “certainty” is that no one has the faintest idea what may happen on Oct. 19. There have been occasions in the past when polls published 10 to 12 months before a general election proved to be reasonably accurate indicators of polling day. Not this year.

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It’s not so much that the polls are volatile as it is that they are shifting restlessly. The third-place Liberals had enjoyed a fairly comfortable lead ever since they made Justin Trudeau their leader in the spring of 2013. In recent months, however, their lead shrank and virtually disappeared as the issues shifted from the Liberal court (distaste for Harper; time for a change) to the Conservative court (national security; the economy, especially the energy sector; and uneasiness about Trudeau’s ability to lead the nation).

But just as it seemed the Conservatives were on the rebound, the numbers moved again. It’s the sort of thing that causes political prognosticators to tear out their hair in frustration. The latest round of published polls puts the Liberals ahead by roughly four percentage points. It’s not much, but if it signals a reversal of the downward trend, it could be significant. Or not.

On Friday, the web-based poll aggregator, ThreeHundredEight.com, having incorporated the most recent surveys, presented these numbers: Liberals 35.6 per cent; Conservatives 31.9; NDP 20.2; Greens 6; Bloc 4.3; and others 2.1.

In other words, minority government. In fact, ThreeHundredEight.com, projected a dead heat with the Liberals and Conservatives each winning 134 seats, the NDP 67, Greens 2, and Bloc 1 in the enlarged 338-seat House of Commons.

If those numbers bear out, 2015 would see the closest national election since 1972 when Pierre Trudeau’s Liberals won just two seats more than Robert Stanfield’s Tories.

Will it happen? Probably not. What makes elections so fascinating is this: when the electorate takes it into its head to move, no one — not pollsters, poll aggregators, pundits or political gurus — knows how far it may move and where it may stop.

The best the aforementioned pollsters, etc. can do is watch certain key areas. They know (or assume) the Atlantic region will go heavily Liberal. They think the Prairies will again be strongly, if not solidly, Conservative. They believe British Columbia will produce the most drama, with a number of close three- and even four-way races.

But it’s the two big provinces, Ontario and Quebec, that will decide the outcome. In Quebec, the New Democrats’ “Orange” breakthrough of 2011, under Jack Layton, is threatened by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. The latest polls put the Liberals four to five points up on the NDP, now led by Quebecer Thomas Mulcair. But that lead can evaporate overnight. The Conservatives are effectively on the sidelines in the province, while the Bloc Québécois appears to have outlived whatever relevance it might once have had.

To Ontario, then, with its wealth of 121 seats. The 73 seats that Harper took in 2011 made his majority. Can he duplicate that performance? The polls are very tight, with the Liberals, strong in the cities, especially Toronto, sitting about three points ahead of the Conservatives, who poll well in the suburbs and in the towns of southwestern Ontario. The NDP is well back with about one-half the support of the other two.

The fight between now and Oct. 19 promises to be brutal. It will make 2015 a year for the books for political junkies.

Letter from a lickspittle

Published Dec. 15, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Rt. Hon. Stephen Harper
24 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario.

My very dear Prime Minister:

Permit me, on behalf of a grateful nation, to extend our thanks for your enlightened stewardship and our best wishes for an exceptionally happy Christmas. Your loyal subjects join you in eager anticipation of your re-election next October to a fourth term as PM. Your place in Canadian history is secure; soon you will join the pantheon of world greats.

But you know all this. Let me get to the point. There’s a pile of presents under your Christmas tree, gifts from supporters and favour-seekers. But be careful, Prime Minister, there is one “gift” you do not want to open. It will cause you great distress. It is a new book entitled “Party of One: Stephen Harper and Canada’s Radical Makeover” by Michael Harris.

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It is a nasty piece of work, Sir. Very nasty. It alleges that since you took command of the state in 2006, you have endeavored, with considerable success, to make the Conservative party and indeed the entire government accountable to just one person – to you, Mr. Harper. The indictment is lengthy. You insist on controlling everything yet refuse to accept blame when things go wrong. You do not trust science, statistics or any information that does not coincide with your own beliefs or partisan intentions. You have no faith in public servants and diplomats to give you objective advice. You withhold information. You treat Parliament with contempt.

You have changed the country. As Michael Harris writes: “Until that moment (when you became prime minister), Canada had been a secular and progressive nation that believed in transfer payments to better distribute the country’s wealth, the Westminster model of governance, a national medicare program, a peacekeeping role for the armed forces, an arm’s-length public service, the separation of church and state, and solid support for the United Nations. Stephen Harper believed in none of these things.”

Please, Prime Minister, do not assume “Party of One” is some sort of partisan rant, a piece of opposition propaganda in election year. It is much more than that. It is a deeply researched and meticulously documented account of your years in office. I have known Harris for years and I worked with him at the Globe and Mail. He is a superb investigative reporter, one of the best. He specializes in finding slithery things hidden under rocks.

His first book, “Justice Denied,” reported the wrongful conviction of Donald Marshall, a Mi’kmaq Indian in Nova Scotia, who spent 11 years in prison for a murder he did not commit. His second, “Unholy Orders,” ripped the lid off the cover-up of sexual and physical abuse of boys at the Mount Cashel Orphanage in Newfoundland.

He brings the same intensity to his scrutiny of your reign. It’s all there: the robocall scandal and election-spending abuses; the destruction of Linda Keen, the head of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission; the F-35 folly; your vendetta against Helena Guergis, who was one of your MPs and ministers until you threw her under the bus; your wars against Statistics Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, the Chief Electoral Officer, the Auditor General and even the Chief Justice of Canada; your government’s hypocritical treatment of veterans; and your errors in judgment in trusting high office to people who should be in jail instead. And, of course, there was your signature folly: Mike Duffy and the Senate-expense scandal; Harris probes your complicity in exhaustive detail.

As I advised at the outset, please, Prime Minister, do not read this book. It will make you angry. It will make you want to get even. You may even want to sue the author for being beastly to you.  I wouldn’t do that, Sir. If the case ends up before the Supreme Court, the Chief Justice and her colleagues may remember how you tried to beat her up after the court blocked your appointment of the ineligible Marc Nadon. Judges have long memories.

Your faithful lickspittle,
etc., etc.