Accepting NDP ideas could create Wynne-win situation

Published May 13, 2013, in The Waterloo Region Record.

This is how it is supposed to work in a parliamentary democracy, isn’t it?

Party leaders and their confederates present competing visions (or, more prosaically, platforms) for the electorate to consider. But once the election is over, smart winners don’t simply impose their visions.

They remember that elections are not decided by partisans (Tim Hudak take note). Core supporters are important, but elections are won or lost on the votes of “loose fish” — uncommitted or lightly affiliated voters — who swim around at election time. More important, smart winners understand that they have not been elected solely to cater to their core; they understand that people who did not (and might never) vote for them are entitled to the same consideration from the government as its partisans.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne is a smart leader. She understands this. (The same cannot be said of the ideologues in Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, or in the Republican party in the United States, but let us not go there today.)

Because she is a smart leader, Wynne is suppressing the frustration she surely feels as NDP Leader Andrea Horwath keeps coming back for more, ratcheting up the price of her party’s support for the minority Liberal government’s budget. The latest demand: creation of a financial accountability office, patterned after the parliamentary budget office in Ottawa.
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Horwath has already snagged some notable concessions, including reduced car insurance rates, more money for home-care and a youth jobs strategy. Now she wants an independent accountability officer, who would report to the speaker of the legislature, not to the government, to provide oversight of government spending.

Although Conservatives (and undoubtedly some Liberals, too) think Horwath has moved beyond poker to a different game — to wit, blackmail — what’s so wrong with that? If there had been a system of independent oversight earlier, some of the more egregious spending scandals of the Dalton McGuinty era might never have happened or been nipped in the bud: eHealth, Ornge ambulance, gas-plant relocations, to mention just three. As long as the government itself oversees government spending, bad stuff tends to slip through. A parliamentary or legislative budget officer is not a panacea, but the position does introduce an element of transparency and, one hopes, caution and restraint.

It’s worth noting that in Ottawa the parliamentary budget office was created in the wake of the Liberals’ sponsorship scandal by the first Harper minority government, then in its pro-accountability days. The Conservatives got much more than they bargained for as the budget officer, Kevin Page, shone a searchlight on government spending — on the war in Afghanistan, prisons and fighter jets, among other things. His term expired in March. He was denied an extension and the office remains vacant while the Tories conduct a leisurely search for a less vigilant watchdog.

At Queen’s Park, Wynne is trying to distance herself from McGuinty’s legacy. Her government still looks and acts too much like his. She needs new faces and new ideas. The spending watchdog is one idea whose time has come. Its projected cost, $2.5 million a year, is almost nothing next to the hundreds of millions wasted in the gas-plant fiasco alone.

So why does Wynne hesitate? Why doesn’t she thank Horwath effusively and grab this shiny new idea? For one thing, she knows that watchdogs have a habit of biting the hand that appoints them. For another, she knows that the more ideas she accepts from the NDP the more she enhances the credibility of a party that is fishing in the same pool of progressive voters.

But to flip that coin over, the risk is just as real for Horwath. The more ideas she insists the Liberals steal, the greater the attraction Wynne’s Liberals will have for her own NDP voters. Why stay true to Andrea Howarth when New Democrats can enjoy the same policies, and have a government to boot, by voting for Kathleen Wynne?

Such is democracy at work.

Geoffrey Stevens on CTV’s Province Wide

Published May 5, 2013, on CTV Province Wide

Geoffrey Stevens talks about what the future holds for Premier Kathleen Wynne and an Ontario election. Stevens believes that Wynne will be in good shape through the summer but notes that it will be interesting to see what happens in the Fall. There is a 50/50 chance that we will have an election in the Fall and a 100 percent chance that we will have an election at this time, next year.

You can watch the video by clicking here.

Tales of three political battles

Published May. 6, 2013, in The Waterloo Region Record

Who says Canadian politics is dull?

In this neck of the woods, we are witnessing three fascinating political battles. At Queen’s Park, Premier Kathleen Wynne is fighting for survival. Last week’s budget bought her Liberals some time, enough to get through the summer, I think, and probably the fall. My guess is she won’t make it – or want to make it – past next spring’s budget.

In Ottawa, the Liberal party, perceived to be moribund following three general election defeats, is struggling to return to life under Justin Trudeau, its fifth leader (including interim Bob Rae) in seven years. It’s beginning to look as though the Liberals will manage to self-resuscitate. A Harris-Decima poll for Canadian Press last week put them a surprising seven percentage points ahead of the Conservatives and 13 points ahead of the sagging New Democrats. These are early, honeymoon days, but those numbers aren’t at all shabby for a Liberal party that is running on charisma alone. Hope has returned to Liberal-land.

Meanwhile, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, master of all he surveyed for the past seven years, is struggling to reassert control. His caucus is restive. Some MPs resent the discipline he imposes on them in Parliament; others refuse to distribute the ugly anti-Liberal propaganda produced by Tory party central. Among the public, there appears to be a growing sense that the Tories are going too far with their television attack ads.

Toughness is a quality that Canadian accept, even admire, in their politicians; meanness is not. The Conservative attack ads on Justin Trudeau cross that line. The Harper people don’t seem to care that some of their “facts” are distorted while some are simply untrue. Stephen Harper is becoming seen as Stephen McNasty, who plays politics hard and dirty.
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He also needs to regain control over his legislative agenda. Whatever else they may be, the Harper Conservatives use to pride themselves on being competent managers. But no longer. Not with the F-35 debacle, the cabinet’s inability to organize the purchase of new search and rescue aircraft, and now there’s a report that the fleet of Arctic patrol ships the government plans to buy are not suitable for use in Arctic waters.

Not least, there is the “missing” $3.1 billion that Parliament approved for anti-terrorism security. The money is not technically lost; it’s just that the government’s financial wizards can’t find it. (Perhaps Treasury Board President Tony Clement hid it in one of his gazebos.)

But back to Kathleen Wynne, Andrea Horwath and the soap opera at Queen’s Park. The facts are simple. Premier Wynne and her finance minister had to bring in a budget. Being a minority government, they didn’t have enough votes to get it through the Legislature. The Conservatives had their feet planted in cement, but NDP leader Horwath was willing to deal. She presented a number of demands. Wynne accepted all the important ones.

“Thank you, Kathleen,” Horwath might have said. “Bless you. You are saint.” And she could have told her party, “Hey, we won! We won! Break out the soda water” (or whatever New Democrats uncork to toast a triumph).

But no. Hearing whispers of dissent, Horwath declared the deal was not yet a done deal. She decided she wanted to consult the people, so she opened a phone line and a website. She plans to meet the premier, probably this week, to seek assurances that the Liberals will change their spots and become more accountable in the future than they have been in the past. Good luck to her!

The NDP is playing with fire. If Howarth reneges, Wynne would not even have to wait to be defeated in the house. She would be within her rights to march down the hall to the lieutenant-governor, tell him the situation is untenable, ask for dissolution and call a snap election. She could win a Liberal majority on back of the faithless New Democrats.

Nothing dull about that, is there?

Prorogation in Ontario: The Lt-Governor Speaks Out

Today in the Toronto Star, Martin Cohn interviews David Onley about his decision to prorogue the Legislature in Ontario here.

It’s a rare peek into the discretionary power of the Crown.

I think Onley made the right call, both legally and politically.  But I think there is room for a larger discussion about the possibility of changing the rules around prorogation.

Some useful resources to start:

1) Democratizing the Constitution: Reforming Responsible Government.

2) Parliamentum blog

Partnering for Successful Aboriginal Economic Development: Lessons Learned and Best Practices

Last week, I was in Sydney, Nova Scotia, at a conference called, “Partnering for Successful Economic Development: Lessons Learned and Best Practices.”  The primary goal of this conference was to “profile best practices in Cape Breton, such as the Unama’ki Model for collaborative economic development and Eskasoni Cultural Journeys, and provide a forum to discuss issues related to the creation and maintenance of successful development partnerships. “ Participants were mainly practitioners and Aboriginal students, with a small number of academics invited to provide a national or international perspective on the various issues raised.

The conference was really interesting in a number of respects.  Continue reading

First, the students who attended were very involved in the formal and informal discussions, and were keen to seek advice on how to be successful in starting their own businesses and creating political change in their home communities.  So, unlike the typical academic conference, there was a general feeling that perhaps some of the ideas at this conference might have a small, but significant impact in the real world and wider community.

Second, we got to hear and see first hand some of the great things happening at Membertou First Nation, a very innovative and exciting First Nation in terms of economic development.  Driving onto the reserve was a real eye opener in terms of the variety of successful economic development initiatives they have pursued successfully, and the quality of life on the community.  According to conference participants, the keys to their success were many of the same factors indentified in the academic literature, including:

(a) building internal and external credibility with band members, federal/provincial/municipal governments, and non-Aboriginal businesses through initiatives like posting information publicly, achieving ISO 9000 designation, and getting rid of long-lingering debt;

(b) establishing an internal economy and infrastructure even if some infrastructure was unlikely to be profitable for a long time. In the case of Membertou, building a convention centre helped them to attract partners and investments to build a hotel, gas station, entertainment centre, and heritage centre, among other things;

(c) building capacity by identifying the various strengths that existing band members in the community had and involving them in economic development planning and other activities, and;

d) framing economic development projects in terms of how they benefit both Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals, which was crucial for attracting financial support and partnerships with non-Aboriginal governments and businesses.

Lots of other interesting ideas were discussed at the conference.  Although there was some debate, the conference participants were in general agreement that partnerships with Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal peoples were crucial for facilitating economic development on-reserves.  The key is to make sure economic development is grounded in community goals and strengths, and to work with partners who want to achieve outcomes that benefit both communities.

Overall, I think the ideas at this conference will be useful for Aboriginal communities that are located close to cities and towns.  To what extent these ideas can help remote communities, however, is far less clear.

Nonetheless, an interesting conference.

LISPOP Associate comments on Dalton McGuinty’s resignation

LISPOP Associate Barry Kay interviewed on Oct. 16, 2012 on CTV News.

“I predicted that Dalton McGuinty would not be on the next ballot, when on the last provincial election he failed to get a majority. There have been opportunities since too, as he had a shot in the by-election in Kitchener-Waterloo.”

Watch Full Interview

Prorogation Protests?

Like this author, I too am waiting for the same media and other commentators who slammed Harper’s prorogations in 2008 and 2009 to do the same to McGuinty’s recent decision.  I look forward to receiving the letter that must be circulating among academics as we speak, condemning McGuinty’s decision to prorogue the Ontario legislative assembly.

E-Textbooks

The Globe and Mail reports:

“The California senator is the author of a bill that promises to make required textbooks free online to thousands of students. His bill, which was signed by the governor and becomes law in January, asks the state and private sponsors to finance 50 digital textbooks that first- and second-year students generally use. …. “We always think of new technology being more expensive. But in the case of college textbooks, the highest cost is actually attached to the centuries-old technology of a printed book,” he said.”

In principle, this is a great idea.  But there are all sorts of potential problems with this particular scheme, mainly because its a top-down approach to digitizing textbooks.  Instead, what needs to happen is for university professors to start writing open source, e-textbooks, which are cost-effective, easy to update, and open to students and the general public.   That way, you avoid a variety of problems that stem from the top-down approach, such as how to choose which textbooks to fund, and to avoid the kind of rent-seeking that is common to these types of bills.

Was Kitchener-Waterloo a harbinger or aberration?

Published Sept. 10, 2012, in the Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury.

Let’s return for a moment to last week’s provincial byelection in Kitchener-Waterloo. Does the outcome – an upset NDP victory – have real implications? Is it a harbinger of things to come in Ontario politics? Or is it an aberration, an oddity to be filed at Queen’s Park under the heading, “Weird Things that Happen in Byelections?”

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Certainly, all three leaders wanted the seat, and wanted it badly, which is why they made, in total, an estimated three dozen visits to the riding during the campaign. Liberal Dalton McGuinty wanted to show that he has not worn out his welcome after nine years as premier, 16 as party leader and 22 as MPP. He would prove that by winning K-W and regaining the majority government he lost a year ago.

Tory Tim Hudak wanted to demonstrate he was not just another failed opposition leader, that he was not, as his critics contend, a dead weight on his party’s prospects. Winning the byelection would make his detractors sheath their stilettos.

New Democratic Party leader Andrea Horwath wanted to prove that the great orange surge that began with Jack Layton in the May 2011 federal election did not die with Layton and was not entirely dissipated in the Ontario election last October, when her party made gains but fell far short of the breakthrough the federal party achieved.

As the most popular provincial leader (or, as some might argue, the “only” popular leader), Horwath knew her job was not on the line. But she needed K-W to demonstrate that the NDP still has momentum – enough to carry her and her party into the next provincial election (which seems likely to happen sooner than later) and to make her leader of the opposition or, just conceivably, premier. The byelection has heightened expectations. Anything short of second place in the general election would be devastating the NDP.

Glancing beyond Ontario’s borders, certain parallels to McGuinty’s and Hudak’s situations can be seen. Hudak has something in common with Mitt Romney (something aside from political ideology). Like the Republican nominee, Hudak suffers from a “comfort deficit” with the public. Where Romney is criticized for being cold, aloof and humourless, Hudak is seen as being angry, negative, mean and forever in search of a scapegoat for his own failures (union bosses being his chosen scapegoats in the byelection).

In McGuinty’s case, Quebec offers a parallel. Jean Charest overstayed his welcome. After nine years and three terms in office, voters cast out his Liberals last week in favour of a minority Parti Québécois government.

It is often said that the most difficult thing in political life is knowing when to get out. Pierre Trudeau stayed too long. So did Brian Mulroney. So, in spades, did former New Brunswick premier Richard Hatfield whose majority Tories wound up with no seats at all in the legislature when he led them to the well once too often.

Affluent, educated Kitchener-Waterloo is exactly the sort of seat that all three parties need to win in the belt of ridings that stretches from the outskirts of the GTA in the east through Halton, Guelph, Waterloo Region and London to Sarnia and Windsor in the west.

If nothing else, the results in the byelection – the Conservatives losing a seat they had held for 22 years; the Liberals running third in race they could have won; the NDP, an afterthought in past elections, winning by a comfortable eight-point margin – suggest that similar seats in this belt will be up for grabs in the next election.

To this extent, I think the byelection was a harbinger of things to come. However, the great thing about politics is that anything can happen. If the Liberals and/or Conservatives rearm themselves with new leadership and attractive policies – and if they start listening to electors instead of talking at them – K-W could prove to be an aberration.

Harbinger or aberration? It will take a general election to answer that question.

Byelection sends messages to three party leaders

Column by Geoffrey Stevens, published Saturday, Sept. 8, 2012 in Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury.

The NDP victory in the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection this week sends a message to all three Ontario parties and their leaders.

For Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals, the message is clear and simple: smarten up. The voters of Ontario told you in the provincial election last October that they were fed up. They didn’t like you very much, not any more. They thought your government was off-track and inept, if not corrupt. They took away your majority. The electors of Kitchener-Waterloo underlined that rebuke by re-electing Progressive Conservative Elizabeth Witmer in October.

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What possessed you, Mr. Premier, to think you could regain a majority by sneaking in through the byelection back door? You assumed the riding would be easy plucking with Witmer gone? You ignored two political dicta: never assume anything, and never underestimate the electorate.

You nominated a capable candidate in Eric Davis. His third-place finish is a wake-up call. That back door has been slammed shut. The people meant what they said in October: no majority.

For Tim Hudak and the PCs, the message is: give your head a shake. You will never have a better opportunity than you had last fall when the aging, gaffe-prone McGuinty Liberals went for a third term. You couldn’t do it then and you couldn’t do it in K-W on Thursday. The painful truth is that voters like you even less than they like McGuinty. You are too negative, too strident and too far right – too Mike Harris – for most Ontarians. “Moderation” and “cooperation” are foreign words to you.

Your byelection nominee, Tracey Weiler, was not a very strong candidate, but that doesn’t matter. She could not have won even if she’d had years, rather than months, of political experience. No Tory was going to win this byelection. It was as much a referendum on your leadership as it was on Dalton McGuinty’s. Both were found wanting. Maybe it’s time for both of you to consider a career change.

Your statement yesterday blaming an influx of “troops” from the public service unions for your party’s defeat is self-serving sour grapes. In byelections, all parties recruit volunteers from wherever they can get them. If they can, they flood the riding with eager supporters. It’s what byelections are all about. It helps make them exciting, and unpredictable.

But union “muscle,” as you call it, did not win Kitchener-Waterloo for the NDP. It won because it was better organized than the others, because it had a message that resonated among voters – and because it had the best candidate. Make no mistake: Catherine Fife was a very good candidate, as impressive as any I have seen in byelections over the years.

For Andrea Horwath and the NDP, the message is: savour your victory but proceed with caution. You won a byelection. Don’t read too much into it. You did not launch an orange wave. Winning a byelection on the crest of a protest vote is one thing. It is quite another thing to establish ownership of a riding the way Elizabeth Witmer did, for 22 years.

There are still more Liberals than New Democrats in Kitchener-Waterloo, notwithstanding the popular vote on Thursday. And these days, there are more Conservatives than Liberals (or New Democrats) both in K-W and in other ridings across the region (with the exception of Guelph).

Byelection results are often reversed in subsequent general elections as voters, having registered their protest, return to the party where they feel most at home. That could well happen to Fife and the NDP.

The other two parties will regard Thursday as an aberration. They will redouble their efforts to knock Fife off and return Kitchener-Waterloo to what each regards as the riding’s rightful owner.

Catherine Fife was a good candidate. She will have to invest all her effort into becoming a very good MPP. She may remind voters of Liz Witmer, but she is not Witmer. She will have to earn her own popularity – and her re-election.

Diversity and Disagreement

A popular question in Canada, among both scholars and pundits: cultural diversity and deep disagreement… good? bad? some of both? What to do in the face of deep disputes over big questions of religion, cultural practices, and moral values?

McGill’s Carlos Fraenkel took a stab at this over the weekend at the New York Times, in an opinion piece provocatively titled “In Praise of the Clash of Cultures.”

Here is the argument in a nutshell.

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People disagree over fundamental Truths about religion, morality, and metaphysics. Let’s call these capital-T truths. The philosopher John Rawls called them “comphrehensive doctrines”. Some philosophers (and more than a few scientists) would call them “mostly bullshit.” But you get the idea: these are the Gauguin, Kant, and Bladerunner questions.

We may be reasonably confident in our considered views about the Truth. Still, it’s plausible that we might have come to very different views if we’d been born and raised in a different time or place. At the very least we might admit, upon reflection, that these deep, subtle questions admit of several plausible answers. While I might be very certain about my answers, how could I justify imposing my truths on others, without at the very least some careful argument that tries to find shared evidence and some common terms of reference?

Frankel cites al-Ghazâlî on ”taqlîd”, and suggests we need to recognize and interrogate conformity to received authority. Rawls would instead cite “the burdens of judgement” (the ideas are not really the same, but we’re roughly on the same page here).

Now, if you value the truth, but admit fallibility, then deep disagreements are good, Fraenkel suggests, because, in Millian fashion, they force us to argue our position against committed assaults on our core assumptions and inferences.

What we need, Frankel argues, is a culture that allows these kinds of encounters without them spiraling into mutual contempt and even violence. In high school, then, we should teach our children to respect other people and try to understand where they’re coming from, even as they hammer away at our cherished beliefs, and we at theirs.

To be sure, there’s mounting evidence that people don’t like these sorts of situations: most people don’t want to be forced to reflect critically on their most cherished convictions, and they don’t want to spend a lot of time and energy arguing with people who fundamentally disagree with them.

Still, you might think that it’s good for us to engage across deep divisions, at least in some important contexts: jury rooms, the ballot box, when thinking about what’s best for our children, our planet—that sort of thing. So why not teach our children, explicitly and carefully, how to engage with other assumptions and arguments in civil, respectful, and constructive ways?

In short, why not make a point of teaching citizens, early and often, how to seek the truth and argue their positions, but without being assholes?

As we watch the train wreck that is (post-Citizens United) presidential campaigning to the south of us, there’s certainly something to this idea: truthfulness instead of truthiness, high-minded and informed civility instead of angry evidence-free sanctimony.

So far so good, then. Unfortunately this is where things start to come off the rails. Here are two problems with the argument that strike me as serious.

First, on the feasibility of fostering “a culture of debate” Fraenkel writes:

“The high school curriculum already includes subjects such as evolution, which are much more controversial than the skills required for engaging difference and disagreement in a constructive way.”

 

I cannot make sense of this in a way that is positive for Fraenkel.

Is he saying that evolution is controversial (it isn’t), but that teaching critical thinking and the “virtues of debate” (“loving the truth more than winning an argument, and trying one’s best to understand the viewpoint of the opponent”) is less so? That seems just wrong to me, even if evolution were remotely controversial.

It is after all, really, really hard to teach people consistently to think like a philosopher when pondering the things that matter most to them, and yet to do so while maintaining high-minded virtues of truth-loving, paired with both civility and a deep desire to understand other viewpoints. It’s certainly tough going here at universities, and I cannot imagine the task would be any easier in our high schools. So, while this curriculum proposal isn’t necessarily controversial in the sense of fostering substantive disagreement (“No! don’t teach my child to think clearly and respect others!” … although on this possibility more shortly), it may well stir controversy in the same way as tax dollars spent on any other aspirational-but-unrealistic curriculum initiative.

Or, more likely, is Fraenkel saying that evolution isn’t especially controversial, and that teaching these skills and virtues is even less so? As much as I’d like to believe this, we have the same problem here: not only is it hard to teach critical reasoning and civic and philosophical virtues (let alone to encourage their consistent application to our most cherished beliefs) but I suspect that the kinds of parents who don’t want their kids learning about evolution are also not going to be especially keen on classes in philosophical analysis and associated virtues! They have, after all, complained about weirder things: who’d have thought that some fundamentalists might have strong views on mathematical set theory?

Second, Fraenkel makes a strange case for his core claim that, “when we can transform the disagreements arising from diversity into a culture of debate, they cease to be a threat to social peace.” That’s nice work if you can get it, but here is how he follows up on this statement of hope:

“I now live in Montréal, one of the world’s most multicultural cities. When a couple of years ago I had to see a doctor, the receptionist was from China, in the waiting room I sat between a Hasidic Jew and a secular Québécois couple, the doctor who attended me was from Iran, and the nurse from Haiti. This was an impressive example of how Canadians, despite their deep moral, religious, and philosophical differences, can work together to provide the basic goods and services that we all need irrespective of our way of life and worldview.”

Non sequitur, alas: the fact that major urban regions are often characterized by this sort of ethnic, cultural, and class mixing in public and commercial spaces doesn’t suggest that a culture of debate will somehow make this the norm!

Indeed, I’m assuming that Fraenkel thinks of Canada and the United States as not characterized by a widespread culture of debate, so the fact that major cities show us how to muddle along, in spite of deep differences, seems to suggest that we should be far more concerned with the civic and spatial forms of cities (a topic dear to my heart), not with getting people into more debates about their deepest convictions!

Rawls, it seems to me, was thinking along the right lines when he suggests that the point isn’t to get us arguing more about our deepest convictions, but to take from fallibility the lesson that capital-T Truth is a nonstarter for justifying political authority. However certain you are that my convictions are wrong-headed, you won’t convince me to support a constitution, or even a specific policy, if your argument in favour requires that I simply accept your beliefs as authoritative. Instead, and at the very least, you’ll need to give me reasons I can accept, from within my worldview.

Fraenkel is correct to dismiss two popular but philosophically suspect approaches to diversity and disagreement. Any superficial celebration of diversity for its own sake smacks of either effete cosmopolitan condescension (“I wouldn’t live anywhere without a good Moroccan restaurant! How can people stand it in the suburbs?or worse, the prairies!?”), or flirts with problematic moral relativism. The alternative approach, popular among some French commentators and legislators, but also evident in Quebec, tries to keep deep disagreements out of the public square. Fraenkel summarizes the approach nicely: “you are a citoyen in public and a Jew, Christian, or Muslim at home”. But this too seems problematic, or at best ridiculously hopeful: when did hiding disagreements ever resolve them?

Fraenkel’s solution seems to me to miss the mark, however, for the reasons I’ve given, but in a way that Rawls’s approach thankfully does not. Rawls’s appeal to public reason has the great virtue not of hiding disagreements, but of providing plausible criteria for inclusion of beliefs and claims in public debates. Further, unlike Fraenkel’s proposal, Rawls’s approach doesn’t make heroic assumptions about widespread abilities and inclinations to argue widely and rigorously about our most cherished beliefs. Instead, we frame our arguments as citizens, asking how we might justify our public claims on others when we disagree about so much.

The K-W By-Election: First Minister Power and Discretion at Their Worst?

On Thursday September 6, Kitchener-Waterloo residents will go to the polls in a by-election to replace long-time Progressive Conservative MPP, Elizabeth Witmer.  Earlier in the year, Ms. Witmer resigned her seat in the Ontario Legislative Assembly to become chair of the Ontario Workplace Safety Insurance Board, a position offered to her by current Ontario Premier and Liberal leader, Dalton McGuinty.

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By-elections happen all the time in federal and provincial politics, but what makes this by-election particularly important is that a Liberal victory on September 6 would instantly transform McGuinty’s minority government into a majority government.

A majority government means that the Liberals will be in power for a full four-year term and that they will be able to pass legislation without having to seek the formal support of the PCs or the NDP. A minority government means that the Liberals must constantly seek compromise with the other parties or risk facing an early election. So the stakes are high.

What’s been most surprising about this by-election has been the lack of scrutiny and analysis of the way in which it came about.  Most of the initial news coverage, for instance, focused on whether Ms. Witmer resigned because she disagreed with PC leader Tim Hudak’s politics and leadership style.

A different interpretation might be that Ms. Witmer resigned because the Premier went looking for an opposition MPP who could be enticed to retire in exchange for a plum post in the Ontario civil service.  In exchange, the Liberals generated a low cost, high gain opportunity for the party.  Specifically, rather than having to fight for a majority government across all Ontario ridings in a general election, in this situation they just have to fight an election in one riding.  And if they win this by-election, they get a majority government.  If they lose this by-election, then the status quo remains, but with the added bonus that they were able to replace an experienced opposition MPP with a new and inexperienced one.

In many ways, this is democracy at its worst.  First, if this interpretation is correct, it’s further evidence that First Ministers in Canada have too much power. In this instance, the Premier may have used his power to appoint an individual to the civil service for his party’s political advantage.

Second, it’s antidemocratic because it means that one riding, which contains approximately 1.5% of Ontario’s population, gets to decide for the rest of Ontario whether the Liberals will have a majority or a minority government.

So what’s the solution?  The common response to perceived undemocratic behaviour in Canada has been to engage in institutional reforms.  So in this instance, for example, the Ontario Legislature could establish rules governing appointments, removing the power from the Premier and transferring it to a non-partisan body.

But institutional reforms can be tricky because sometimes they can be ineffective or have unintended and negative consequences, such as the case with Prime Minister Harper’s fixed election date legislation.

Instead, I think the solution to curtailing this type of First Minister behaviour is to place the responsibility on voters.  Specifically, voters need to punish governing parties that engage in these types of undemocratic practices.

K-W Byelection definitely a three-way race

Published on August 31, 2012 in Waterloo Region Record

Past conventional wisdom suggests that the Sept. 6 provincial byelection in Kitchener-Waterloo would normally be a contest between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals.

… However, the federal experience suggests that if one removes Witmer from the equation, the corresponding Kitchener-Waterloo riding is a fairly reliable bellwether of Ontario in general. More…

Incumbents fight to survive as voters look for change

Published Aug 27, 2012 in Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury

Change is a four-letter word to politicians in power, something to be resisted, not
embraced.

For Jean Charest in Quebec, change means fighting from behind, desperately struggling to keep the job he has held for nine long – too long – years. Quebec voters have become bored with Charest and cynical about his Liberals. Parti Québécois leader Pauline Marois is no René Lévesque or Lucien Bouchard in the charisma department, but if the polls are to be believed – and I wouldn’t bet my coffee money on it – she will end the Charest era
on Sept. 4, emerging with at least a PQ minority. Continue reading

For Dalton McGuinty, also too long in office (nine years, just like Charest) change is the nightmare that began last October when Ontarians took away his Liberals’ majority and left him to play brokerage politics with the opposition parties. That’s a high-stakes game that the premier does not play well; too many years with a majority dulled his survival instincts. McGuinty has to hope the nightmare of 2011 has receded enough to let him to regain his majority in the two byelections – Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan – on Sept. 6. His chances of winning both would seem to be somewhere between slim and bleak.

South of the border, President Barack Obama might ordinarily be shoo-in for re-election. The Republicans fielded a bunch of clowns in the primaries (remember the two Ricks, Santorum and Perry, and the flat-tax guy, Ron Paul ?) before settling on the colourless and humourless Mitt Romney, who has to be the least impressive candidate for president since Gerry Ford in 1976 – with the Tea Party darling, Paul Ryan, as Romney’s running mate.

But the desire for change may be profound enough to let the Republican duo win in November. A USAToday/Gallup survey last week showed them in a dead heat with the Democrats in a dozen key battleground states. Ominously for Obama, registered voters in those states, by a 56-40 margin, told the pollsters they are worse off today than they were
when he became president in 2008.

Back to Quebec, where some observers are saying the Charest Liberals could finish third, just as their federal Liberal cousins did last year. This would put them behind both the PQ and François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec – notwithstanding Charest’s vaunted ability as a campaigner.

I was struck by a comment quoted in the Globe and Mail from Cédrick Billequey, a 37-year-old soccer dad and erstwhile Liberal voter in the bellwether riding of Laval-des-Rapides. “What I want is change,” he said. “Mr. Charest has stopped thinking outside the box. Mr. Legault could shake up Quebec, and Quebec needs it.”

When Quebecers last decided to shake things up, in the May 2011 federal election, the orange wave they released carried New Democrats to victory in 59 of the province’s 75 ridings.

In Ontario, McGuinty, unlike Charest, can take comfort in the knowledge that when he wakes up the morning after the voting he will still be premier. He doesn’t have as steep a hill to climb as Charest. He doesn’t have to fight off allegations of corruption in the construction industry spilling over into his party. But the Ontario Liberals do face serious issues of their own – issues that speak more to mismanagement than to corruption.

There’s the $180 million fiasco of the cancelled gas-fueled electrical generating plant in Mississauga; the $1 billion eHealth scandal; and currently the Ornge air ambulance scandal in which the premier is hiding behind his minister of health to avoid appearing before a legislature committee.

The scandals reveal a pattern: a provincial government that is careless with taxpayers’ money, that does not take the trouble to make sure publicly-funded projects are well-conceived and adequately supervised.

Will any of this make a difference to McGuinty’s byelections? Perhaps we’ll get an idea when the major candidates in Kitchener-Waterloo try to shake things up tonight in a public forum sponsored by The Record and its partners.

Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens, an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail, teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph. He welcomes comments at
geoffstevens@sympatico.ca

Swing Voters in Ontario Elections

Outcomes of the September 6 byelections in Ontario focus a great deal of attention on the “swing voter,” that is, the voter with loose partisan ties who can potentially be swayed from one party to another. This is the prize all three parties pursue, especially in Kitchener-Waterloo where there is nothing to suggest one candidate has a comfortable and wide lead. It’s anybody’s game, hence the race to sway the swing voter.

On this theme, I raise four questions, and locate answers based on a preliminary analysis of some data in our collection. Continue reading

First, how do we define a “swing” voter, methodically? This is certainly not a new topic. For instance, Mayer used the American National Election Study’s 100-point thermometer scales to identify the American swing voter, defined as a voter with equally favourable views of the Democratic and Republican parties. Read the article for details on the actual methodology. However, at present, it cannot be easily applied in the Ontario case, at least not with the data I have on hand.

I’m using the 2011 Ipsos Reid online “exit poll” conducted on the day of the Ontario general election (available at the LISPOP data portal), and it does not contain thermometer rating scales. So I had to improvise using other items available in this survey.

Let’s start with some assumptions about a swing voter. They probably hold the following attributes:

  1. They are less likely to remain loyal to one party. Such partisans are, by definition, the opposite of a swing voter.
  2. They likely make their final vote decision later in the campaign, given their propensity to “swing” back and forth along with the oscillations of campaign dynamics.

Either one, on its own, may not be sufficient grounds to identify the swing voter. One can vote for one party in one election and another party in a later election because of a change in loyalties. Or, someone could wait until near the end of a campaign to make a “final” decision, but it may be little more than an affirmation of the party which they tend to support quite regularly. They are not moved by any partisan loyalties, per se, but by habit (which, I guess, is a form of partisan attachment). In any case, it seems that from this improvised two-dimensional typology, the “swing” voter would be one who decided late and also decided to support a party that is different than one chosen in a previous election.

My second question is: How large is the “swing” vote? According to some American observations, it’s marginal. A New York Times article (brought to my attention by a LISPOP colleague Geoffrey Stevens) reports on research that finds a very small percentage of the American electorate  considered true swing voters, identified as those who are “independent” or not partisan to any one party. Furthermore, most swing voters appear to reside in non-battleground states, such as California and Texas.

But when my two dimensions are applied to the Ipsos survey, we see different picture.

As the table shows, 30% of respondents voted differently between the two elections. The same applies for the Kitchener-Waterloo riding, although this is based on a much smaller subsample (n ˜ 80). The numbers from Vaughn, while available, are too tiny to render any meaningful insight. But regional data shows the “416″ and “905″ as having the largest percentage of consistent voters (more than 70%).

Furthermore, 52%, appear in the top-right section: voted the same in 2007 and in 2011, and made this decision early in the campaign, defined here as before the televised leaders’ debate. These voters may have been unaffected by campaign activities as their decision to vote for the same party they had supported in 2007 was reached before the campaign actually began. We can call this cell the “partisans.”

The least populated section is in the top-left, switchers who made their final decision before the campaign. This is not surprising at it takes some effort to move someone from supporting one party to another. What’s a bit surprising is this cell still accounts for a substantial proportion of the sample, 14%. Perhaps these are voters whose partisan ties have realigned.

The bottom right-hand comprises 18% of respondents. Their vote from 2007 to 2011 remained the same, but for some reason the final vote choice arrived late. Perhaps these are the more “habitual” partisans who were not entirely engaged with the campaign, so their final decision was to remain loyal to one party. It could very well be that these are swing voters who may have at one time during the campaign moved to another party, but were, for whatever reason, swayed back to their original leanings.

Let’s now turn our attention to the bottom left group of cells. These respondents, which account for 16% of the total sample, voted in 2011 for a party different than the one they had supported in 2007, and also made their final vote decision sometime after the leaders’ debate, i.e., the “swing” voter according to the formulation outlined here. It is not a humungous proportion of the electorate, but not insubstantial.

Provided we accept this formulation, then just how practically significant is this group of swing voters? In other words, among this group of 1300 respondents, how did their vote change? Which party benefited? That’s my fourth and final question.

From the above table, two things are clear. First, the biggest group of swing voters are those who voted Liberal in 2007. Second, the biggest beneficiary was the NDP, which gained most from swing voters across all parties. Even among those who voted PC in 2007, 46% moved to the NDP, which is higher than the 43% who moved to the Liberals.