Published Apr. 30, 2013, in 570 News
Dr. Barry Kay appears on The Gary Doyle Show to discuss our most recent Ontario seat projection. At this moment, Dr. Kay sees a minority government in the future as no party has a significant lead.
You can hear what Dr. Kay had to say by listening here
Published April 14, 2013, on CTV News
Dr. Barry Kay appears on CTV News to talk about what the future holds for our local ridings in Kitchener and Kitchener/Waterloo. He expects the Liberals to be very competitive in our already competitive local ridings. Dr. Kay states, “Justin Trudeau will be help the liberal party, especially for younger voters…”
Published Apr. 12, 2013, in The Waterloo Region Record
There was a time when life was so much simpler for critics of American foreign policy. For decades, they had a natural affinity for anyone in conflict with the United States.
It was much easier in those days to wrap oneself into a cocoon of sanctimony if one was hostile to the U.S. agenda. Since the decline of the Soviet Union, and with it the illusion of an alternate ideological construct to western free markets, it has become more of a challenge to lionize foes of the United States.
Saddam Hussein, al-Qaida, the Iranian mullahs, and Myanmar’s military are not particularly sympathetic figures. Nations like Russia and China still try to make common cause and find leverage in any regime that is hostile to the West, but the influence of these rogue governments is on the wane.
Published April 3,2013, in The Waterloo Region Record.
Many Canadians, especially those from urban areas, have difficulty understanding the obsession with guns that apparently pervades the American political culture.
Unfortunately, we are reminded of this at disturbingly regular intervals, when mass shootings become sensationalized media stories. Apart from not appreciating, and indeed sneering at, the cultural differences that underlie the issue, we don’t understand the political constraints that seem to deny an easy remedy to the problem.
Passed in 1791, the second amendment to the U.S. Constitution was predicated upon the assumption that a “well-regulated militia” was necessary to the security of a free state. Some might think the world had changed in the intervening two centuries plus, but a 2008 U.S. Supreme Court decision, District of Columbia vs. Heller, clarified that principle to suggest that the ownership of firearms was guaranteed for purposes such as self defence within one’s home. It did not, however, guarantee the right of an individual to semi-automatic weapons with virtually unlimited ammunition clips.
Published Mar. 16, 2013, in the Waterloo Region Record.
It wasn’t so very long ago that the expectation of a federal majority government in Canada seemed far-fetched.
Of course the May 2011 election defied that conventional wisdom, and Stephen Harper’s government is set until at least 2015. Crucial to that federal Conservative majority was that for the first time since Brian Mulroney‘s heyday, the party was able to win seats in the city of Toronto. (As an aside, it might be noted that while the Conservatives have consistently led polls since, recent numbers indicate that another majority is not at all certain.)
More pertinent to this discussion, however, is that analogous to the past federal situation, the prospect of majority government being established in Ontario in the near future is very much in doubt, given the trend of regional polarization that was exacerbated in the October 2011 provincial election.
Published Feb. 27, 2013, in The Waterloo Region Record.
It is ironic that in an American Congress where members are divided along party lines, and seem barely able to agree upon the time of day, one of the few laws they have passed authorizes a budget sequester which is being decried on all sides, and threatens to disrupt an already tepid economic recovery in the US. The explanation of course, is that the sequester was never supposed to happen. It was a miscalculation by both Republicans and Democrats that by adopting threatening tactics they could jointly frighten each other into compromising upon financial offsets, to permit the House of Representatives an extension of the debt ceiling, which was itself a threat to force the president into spending cuts without reciprocal revenue increases.
This all dates back eighteen months when the American economic outlook was even bleaker than it is today, and President Obama was apprehensive about the impact of a crisis precipitated by Congress to force an economic default, prior to the 2012 presidential election. He and congressional Democrats hoped that if they spared the mandatory entitlement programs, the fear of a mutual reduction in domestic discretionary spending as well as defense spending, might motivate Democratic and Republican legislators to break their ideological impasse on other expenditures.
Published Jan. 26, 2013, in The Waterloo Region Record.
Those familiar with Israel’s electoral system will know that identification of the leading party and the prime minister-designate in a parliamentary election like the one held Tuesday is only the beginning of a long, arduous negotiating process to determine the shape of the new government, something that can take weeks.
While incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu is effectively the only plausible choice for prime minister after this week’s voting, his Likud party and its partner Israel Beteinu dropped from 42 seats in the previous Knesset (parliament) to just 31, barely halfway to forming even a bare majority in the 120-seat legislature, and it would require a substantially larger coalition to have any stability.
Most of Netanyahu’s decline was taken up by a new more conservative party, Bayit Yehudah. Of even greater consequence, however, is that the overall aggregation of right-wing and religious parties that sustained him in the past fell from 65 seats to 61, effectively insufficient to form a government on their own.
Published Jan. 23, 2013, in The Waterloo Region Record.
The wrangling between Democrats and Republicans over deficits and the U.S. debt has just begun
The imagery of the fiscal cliff was an irresistible metaphor for media outlets covering the political confrontation in Washington in the closing weeks of 2012.
However, the wave of attention focused upon whether America’s economy would dive over the cliff on New Year’s Eve was merely a curtain raiser that has ushered in constant conflict in the new 113th Congress.
As it happened, that issue was addressed a few hours later, but only by kicking the can down the road for a few weeks. Some symbolic matters were dealt with in the New Year’s Day deal, including many Republicans being obliged to restore a higher tax rate for a tiny fraction of the wealthiest U.S. citizens, but in terms of alleviating the budget deficit it amounted to peanuts. The annual savings were approximately equivalent to the amount of revenue allocated to the victims of hurricane Sandy.
Published Nov. 29, 2012, in The Waterloo Region Record.
Sixty-five years ago today, on Nov. 29, 1947, the then recently created United Nations General Assembly passed resolution 181, which was to partition the former British mandate in Palestine into two states, one Arab and one Jewish.
This two-state formula was not a radically new idea. –Keep Reading–
As the American election campaign draws to a close, it is rather trite to observe that the race is extremely close. It has been that way for many months, but especially so since the first debate on Oct. 3. What follows is not so much a prediction, but rather guidelines to look for if you are watching the results Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. If one focuses upon the nine swing states highlighted by the media as still in play, the most likely Obama wins are in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada. If Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin, he need only take one of Iowa or Nevada to hit the magic 270 number in the electoral college.
The Republicans have talked wistfully about expanding the battlefield to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, and a few polls have been close there, but Romney hasn’t visited there recently, and he would have if they were actually in play. Where the candidates are spending the last few days is the best test of which states are really crucial.
All of the above states are close however, and barring a late surge in one direction, it will be a much later night or probably morning before things are clear. The national popular vote isn’t particularly important in itself, although if one candidate has a margin exceeding two percentage points, historically that been a significant indicator of trends.
One uncertainty about all this is the possibility of differential turnout rates from 2008, especially among the young and minority voters which were critical groups in supporting Obama last time. One of the reasons for differing results from the pollsters, is the varying criteria they use in determining who is likely to vote.
The House of Representatives isn’t likely to produce a significantly different result from last time, but the Senate is important. Should Romney win, the ability of Democrats to control that chamber could block Republican attempts to eliminate Obamacare. Of 33 seats at stake there, 23 are currently held by Democrats, and the Republicans would have to gain a net of three in a Romney win, or four in an Obama win to organize the chamber.
To summarize, Ohio is still the most probable pivot, but if the state is really close, the ultimate decision could linger for days. The final count of absentee and contested ballots there isn’t until Nov. 16.
Electoral College Votes from Non-Swing States
Obama- 237
Romney- 191
Obama Leaning States
Ohio- 18
Wisconsin- 10
Iowa- 6
Nevada- 6
Tied States
Virginia- 13
Colorado- 9
New Hampshire- 4
Romney Leaning States
Florida- 29
Nor. Car- 15
Published on Oct. 10, 2012, in The Waterloo Record.
One can sympathize with the dilemma that had befallen Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
He is a political candidate who has been on virtually every side of every significant American issue: abortion, gun control, gay rights, global warming, illegal immigration, and most notably the individual mandate-based health care system that the former Massachusetts governor introduced in his state but now opposes nationally.
As the Republican party moved ever rightward under the pressure of the tea party and conservative evangelical Christians, a moderate Republican governor from the liberal state of Massachusetts couldn’t be nominated without abandoning wholesale the positions he had taken to get him elected there in the first place. Read more…
