The Imagined Electorate: Values, Perceived Boundaries and the Regional Rehabilitation of Political Culture

Speaker: Ailsa Henderson.

Lecture Dec. 3, 2014 at University of Edinburgh Business School.

Abstract: The Imagined Electorate: Values, Perceived Boundaries and the Regional Rehabilitation of Political Culture
Political culture is often seen as a concept whose time has come and clearly gone, instinctively useful but difficult to treat with precision. Researchers, who have typically employed it as a tool to compare states, have largely been silent on how it might operate at the sub-state level, notwithstanding the considerable research attempting to map regional political cultures within pluri-national or federal states. And yet addressing political culture below the level of the state forces one to explore many of its unanswered questions: How do we know when political cultures exist?; How do we delineate their boundaries?: How important is evidence of distinctiveness? This lecture explores political culture as it operates below the level of the state, identifies the existence of two forms of regional political cultures, identifies markers by which we can identify and delineate political cultures and highlights the importance of perception. It provides data demonstrating that citizens believe they possess distinct values from those in neighbouring regions, even in the absence of meaningful variations in attitudes. The result is an imagined electorate for whom legislators then legislate. Far from proving that regional political cultures do not exist, such imagined perceptions of difference form a central component of the subjective dimensions of politics that political culture as a concept was originally designed to capture. Throughout it argues that by exploring political culture below the level of states we can rehabilitate it as a tool for political scientists.

Are the Tories flying under the radar on the F-35?

Published Nov. 17, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Now that MPs are back in Ottawa from their week-long Remembrance Day break and the Prime Minister has returned from telling off Vladimir Putin at the G-20 summit Down Under, might one venture an impolitic question?

Who is responsible for pulling the wool over the Canadian public’s eyes on the F-35, that hugely expensive stealth warplane that Ottawa has been dithering over for the better part of a decade?

Is it the Conservative cabinet, which would dearlylove to acquire 65 of these magnificent flying machines, if only it could figure out a way to sneak the purchase (estimated price: $45 billion over the lifetime of the aircraft) past the auditor general, parliamentary budget officer and the opposition parties? Or is it the Pentagon, which, being under heavy political fire in Washington for cost overruns, is anxious to spread the F-35 risk among as many friendly nations as possible? Continue reading

Or is it our own generals at the Defence Department in Ottawa and their allies in the aircraft industry (our very own “military-industrial complex”), who may be desperate to nail down the purchase of the snappy new planes before a federal election next year that could produce a new government with ideas of wiser ways to spend $45 billion?

The Harper government keeps insisting a final decision has not been made on new fighter aircraft. But those denials have worn thin. Last week’s column mentioned a leak from a Pentagon briefing to the effect that Canada had asked to accelerate the purchase of its first four F-35s, with a letter of intent to be sent to Washington this month and a purchase order placed by next March.

This information was contained on slide 11 of a 14-slide, high-level briefing by Lieutenant-General Christopher Bogdan, the F-35 program executive officer, to Deborah Lee James, secretary of the U.S. Air Force. The Pentagon subsequently confirmed the accuracy of the leak.

These four early-production aircraft, to be used for pilot training, would cost an anticipated $640 million. More than that, they would effectively commit Ottawa replacing the aging CF-18s with F-35s. (Who in his right mind would spend $640 million to train pilots on planes they were never going to be asked to fly?)

Stephen Harper was Auckland on an official visit to New Zealand when reporters caught up to his entourage last week. Officials travelling with him insisted Canada will not be buying those four F-35s and said no decision will be made on which warplane to purchase until firm details on cost and capabilities are received from Lockheed Martin, the U.S. manufacturer.

Who to believe? Assuming the officials with Harper were being truthful, is it possible that the U.S. general briefing the secretary of the air force deliberately misled her with a view to shoring up political support for the troubled program? Alternatively, is it possible that a senior person in the Canadian military or even in the cabinet slipped some erroneous (or premature) information to the Pentagon in the hope of backing the Harper government into a purchase commitment?

Last week, there was another leak, this time to the Ottawa Citizen. Ever since 2006, the Harper government has been a participant in a nine-nation partnership that helps finance the development of the F-35. The way it works, each country kicks in some money every year; in return, manufacturers in that country get a chance to bid on contracts to supply components for the F-35.

This year, Ottawa was asked to contribute $22.5 million. The defence department refused to pay and passed the bill to the RCAF, which pleaded poverty. When the dust settled, the department found the cash, gave it to the RCAF and told the air force to pay the bill.

This annual tithing exercise is part of the 2006 partnership agreement; it commits Canada to investing $551 million over 40 years. The next payment falls due on May 1. And no decision has been made? Really?

The Mirror Of The Residential Schools Policy

There was a fascinating and troubling court decision on Friday that ruled that First Nations traditional medicinal practices are “aboriginal rights” in the context of section 35 of the constitution. Although the intent of this decision is, on its surface, to respect the aboriginal rights confirmed by the constitution and thus to ensure the vitality of aboriginal communities, I argue that this case mirrors residential schools policy. It does so in that it denies First Nations children the protection of medical interventions and perpetuates rhetorical space for a continued exploitation of First Nations people by powerful and predatory financial interests in the alternative health industry.

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In the case, a judge dismissed an application by McMaster Children’s Hospital to compel the Brant Children’s Aid Society (CAS)to take action to take into custody a child from the Six Nations reserve. The child in question had been diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in August and, with the consent of the child’s parent, had begun undergoing chemotherapy treatment. In the hospital’s assessment, going through the full phase of treatment meant the child had a 90-95% chance of survival (Note: this study reports an 80% cure rate). After a brief period undergoing the treatment, one of the parents withdrew the child, ostensibly in favour of traditional medicine. Concerned about the child’s welfare, the hospital contacted the relevant CAS office (Brant) to gain some assistance in getting the child back into chemotherapy. The CAS declined to intervene, although it appears from the facts of the case that this was a considered, and not a knee-jerk, decision, whereupon the hospital filed the court action to compel Brant CAS to action.

Essentially the judge decided a fairly narrow, but crucially important, point. The importance of this decision cannot be understated. The judge ruled in the abstract that practicing traditional medicine is an aboriginal right confirmed under section 35 of the constitution. In the specific, he ruled that the parent of the child, as the substitute decision-maker, was practicing traditional indigenous medicine. Therefore, her decision was covered by s. 35 and could not be abridged, even by any evidence about the efficacy of said types of medicine.

This is a landmark and a terrible judicial decision. I come to this conclusion not through a particular professional interest or expertise in the politics of aboriginal rights in Canada, but in risk perception, risk management and the role of scientific evidence in public policy. Perhaps the worst flaw in the judge’s reasoning was to rely too heavily on concepts of “traditional” and “western” medicine as discrete, identifiable activities of human endeavor, even making reference to the “western paradigm.” “Paradigms” have a long history in the philosophy of science, particularly associated with the work of Thomas Kuhn. However, the concept has been so stretched, abused and misunderstood that its utility in the philosophy of science is questionable. Certainly, it is dubious to rest a judicial decision on which a girl’s life and the nature of aboriginal rights in contemporary Canada on such a shaky concept.

Central to Kuhn’s concept of “paradigm” is the notion of incompatibility, which is to say that two competing scientific paradigms are discrete, parallel and that the relative merits cannot be adjudicated in terms of evidence. This has been a tremendously powerful concept in the field of the philosophy of science and public discourse. But it is nowhere near a “proven” or “true” description of the nature of scientific theories and evidence. For one thing, as valuable Kuhn’s descriptions of the sociological process of paradigmatic construction has been, one can ask whether accepting the concept of a “paradigm” necessarily means that one must accept notions that evidence or facts cannot adjudicate between competing paradigms. Moreover, famously, one philosopher of science once argued Kuhn had failed even to coherently define a paradigm, counting 21 separate definitions in his original book.

One consequence of conceiving of traditional and western medicine as being composed of two competing paradigms is that it creates rhetorical space for a multi-billion dollar industry of highly organized financial interests to offer “alternative” medical services, including the Hippocrates Institute in Florida, to which the child’s parent turned in this case, at a cost of $18,000 after seeing a presentation . The industry is so huge and varied that it defies cataloguing in this space, but it ranges from corner store homeopathic, naturopathic and chiropractic providers to billion dollar nutritional supplement companies as well as clinics. What unites all of them is the premise that the medicine that people know, use and is tested is “western” and that what is not is complementary or alternative. For example, HPI Health Products Incorporated, based in Dawson Creek, British Columbia markets a highly successful line of pain supplements as “Lakota Herbs”. You might know them from a questionable television ad in the 1990s featuring a First Nations actor recommending the product. Most of its products are made from “natural products” such as willow bark, a plant that contains the chemical salacin. This product has been used throughout human history for its pain relief properties, including by Bayer to make….apsirin. The consequences of this example are important. It reveals both that the distinction between traditional and wesetern medicine is not so discrete, and that interests in the alternative health industry can colonize First Nations images and practices. In order for HPI to make any money, it has to differentiate its product, so it appeals to a widespread suspicion of western medicine and defines itself as both alternative and traditional.

There are a vast array of dubious rhetorical strategies available to people to make this link, many of them on display in front of the judge in this trial. I witnessed one expert argue that both alternative and traditional medicines focus on the health of the whole person. A second expert argued that traditional medicine was based on homeopathic principles. Homeopathy, of course, is a system of alternative medicine that has roots in medieval Germany and is premised on the notion that substances become more medically powerful as they are diluted out of existence.

One of the central arguments made by the defendants in the case was that pursuing alternative medical treatments at the Hippocrates Institute was an extension of traditional, Haudenosonee medicine and, more importantly, stands in contrast to “western” medicine. According to this news story, the decision to pursue treatment at the Hippocrates Institute was directly related to the decision to stop chemotherapy. Quoting from the story:

After securing financial support from family, she called Clement from the hospital waiting room on the 10th day of her daughter’s chemotherapy.
“He had the tone of voice where he was so confident,” she says.
“By him saying, ‘Oh yes no problem we can help her,’ that’s the day I stopped the chemo.”

However, the Hippocrates Institute has no connection to Haudenosonee people, history or culture. Instead is an archetypal institution of the “alternative” or “complementary” health industry. It offers classes in “lifestyle transformation” and “encourages people to draw from their vast inner resources to transform the quality of their health and lives.” Its goal is to: ” assist people in taking responsibility for their lives and to help them internalize and actualize an existence free from premature aging, disease and needless pain.” It also seems to have a singular focus on the power of food as a source of medicine:

Under the guidance of a knowledgeable and compassionate team, guests from all over the world benefit from health and nutritional counseling, non-invasive remedial and youth-enhancing therapies, state of the art spa services, inspiring talks on life principles and a tantalizing daily buffet of enzyme-rich, organic meals.

This is a powerful way to blur the differences between traditional and alternative medicine, in that, on their own telling, traditional medicines were herbs and plants provided by the Creator to grow.

The problem here is that all these claims cannot pass evidentiary tests of efficacy. They do not work. “Western” medicine, by contrast, is defined by its commitment allowing claims to stand only so long as they are supported by evidence. It is not my first choice to quote from a comedian on a point of such grave concern, but Tim Minchin truly said it best, when he said that by definition, “alternative” medicine has not been proved to work or has been proved to not work. “Alternative” medicine that has been proved to work is ….medicine. This is precisely what happened with willow bark and aspirin. Used by traditional cultures, European and others, everywhere, scientific methods proved and refined its efficacy and it became….medicine.

And here we arrive at the problem with defining traditional, alternative and western medicine as different, but equal, paradigms. “Western” medicine is not in any way “western”. It is medicine. It is worth noting, European life and society were equally marked by “traditional” forms of medicine. Some ultimately passed tests of efficacy and became “medicine”. Others, such as bleeding, were swept aside and destroyed by the onslaught of “western” medicine in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. I have myself had conversations with elderly German women who praise the “traditional” knowledge of herbs that their grandparents knew and bemoan the loss of those traditions in the face of “western” medicine. “Western” medicine, it seems, was as destructive to particular “western” traditions as traditional medicines.

These concepts that we commonly use to navigate the field of contemporary health care lead us into traps with damaging, even fatal, consequences. In particular, when medicine is deifned as “Western,” the rhetorical space is created that is necessary for financial interests like the Hippocrates Institute and giant pharmaceutical companies peddling all sorts of snake oil to convince people interested in “traditional” medicine that what they both share is that they are “not western”. In this case, the Hippocrates Institute charged the family $18,000 for a treatment program that has reportedly included lessons in developing a positive attitude and learning how to eat raw, vegan diets. This reveals again the distinction between alternative and traditional medicine. Not only did First Nations diets not vegan, no human community has subsisted in human diets since we developed fire and cooking. The trend to veganism and raw food is almost entirely a product of education and affluence.

This is what I mean when I speak of the “mirror of the residential schools policy”. This may not be a perfect metaphor for what is going on here, but it is good enough, I think, to put it out there. When you put a picture in front of the mirror, you can still grasp the conceptual outlines of what is involved. A person is a person, a house is a house. But what was on the left is on the right. Positions are reversed. In the residential schools policy, elements of the Canadian state forced First Nations children to residential schools to assimilate them. Some elements of the state were racist and malevolent, but I suspect (this stands subject to verification) some were actually well meaning but misguided”. However, we all know the consequences were near genocidal.

Today, we have an element of the state (McMaster University) still making an attempt to apprehend a child, not to destroy them, but to save them. By contrast, we have other elements of the state (Brant CAS and the judge) cooperating with predatory white people and well-meaning allies in the worlds of health care, the university and the law, seeking to prevent this. Ironically, the past legacy of the residential schools policy as a justification. The roles are kind of reversed, as in a mirror, but the effect is going to be the same: a First Nations child is going to die.

If we cease thinking about medicine as “western” and, instead, think about it as medicine that has been proven to work, then we can also cease demonizing contemporary doctors and hospitals as current manifestations of past colonial attempts and seeing predatory quacks as anti-colonial allies. Instead, we can look at what medicine can offer First Nations people. We can think about it as the best that white society can offer, not the worst.

One of the arguments I often hear against the thesis that the treaties signed between First Nations and the Crown meant that First nations subsequently gave up rights to their territory and became wards of the state is that the spirit of the treaties was meant to enable a joint sharing of the land and a joint prosperity. If we stop thinking of medicine as “western” does this not open up space for us to make the same argument? Do McMaster and its proven treatments start to look like the best that “western medicine” can offer and the predatory quacks at the Hippocrates Institute as the worst?

Teaching Canadian Federalism: A “Flipped Classroom” Lesson Plan

My goal in PO 263, which is the introductory course on Canadian political institutions, is to add one new active learning unit every year I teach it.  Last year, I introduced a flipped classroom activity on the Supreme Court of Canada, which I’ve blogged about previously and will be using again in two weeks.

The new activity I added this year was for my federalism unit.  Prior to class, students completed two readings (e.g. a textbook chapter and a journal article), a tutorial discussion, and an online quiz on the textbook reading.  In class, I lectured for an hour (interspersed with “top hat monocle” activities) on the various forces that have placed stress on our Canadian federal system.

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After the break, I divided the students into groups of five or six and told them the following:

“You have been hired by the government of Canada to recommend a wholesale redesign of Canada’s federal system. You have been given complete freedom to make whatever recommendations you wish to make. Reflecting on the knowledge you have acquired about Canadian federalism and how it has developed over time, how would you redesign the Canadian federal system?”

The groups were given 40 minutes to draw up and email me a proposal for how they might change our federal division of powers.  They were also to provide a one minute presentation summarizing their main changes and why.

Incentives in the form of classroom participation and bonus marks were also added to encourage students to participate.

The results were pretty fantastic.  All of the students were involved in the discussions and the proposals they generated were very interesting, but also a useful launching pad for a class discussion about some enduring themes in the course: e.g. the dynamics of institutional change and institutional design. We also discussed whether the diversity in the proposals reflected the impossibility of designing a federal system to accommodate all interests and thus separatism is inevitable, or whether the diversity combined with the resilience of the Canadian federation indicates that federalism is the solution to managing countries like Canada.

At the end of class, lots of smiles and energy. During class, lots of good discussion in the groups.

It’s certainly a activity I’ll use again in the future but maybe add some additional steps, such as having students vote on proposals or “vote with their feet”!

UPDATE: Another thing I would do next time would be to tell the class about the activity before they completed the various homework activities (e.g. the readings, tutorials, and online quiz) and attended lecture.  I think if the students knew what was coming, the quality of the proposals would be much better.  As well, recent research suggests that “problem-based” learned activities are effective mainly because they force students to do more prep work which in turn results in more successful learning.  Interestingly, the “problem-based” activity itself seems to only have a limited impact on learning outcomes.  At least that’s the finding reported in a recent PS: Political Science and Politics article. Check out that article, written by Robert P. Amyot (Hastings College), here.

UPDATE PART2: Here is the activity sheet for anyone who wants to use this activity and here are the slides I used to introduce the activity.

Are Tories fast-tracking the F-35 decision?

Published Nov. 10, 2014 in the Waterloo Region Record.

Love them or hate them, you have to concede one thing to the Harper Conservatives. They are persistent. Some might say stubborn or high-handed, even when wrong-headed. Once they have embarked on a course, they do not let themselves be deflected – not by public opinion, not by the courts (the restoration of anti-prostitution laws being a current example), not by Parliament, not by expert opinion, and certainly not by common sense.

The long drawn-out saga of the F-35 fighter aircraft is an example of the Conservatives’ refusal to heed both expert opinion and common sense. They have been committed to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning, the most expensive warplane in history, ever since they took office in 2006. In 2012 – faced with production delays, performance issues, soaring costs (from an original estimate of $16 billion over the lifetime of 65 aircraft to a revised projection of $45 billion), and a devastating report by the Auditor General – the government ordered a review.

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No one outside the government knows what the review, conducted in secret, involved. Did it look seriously at other (and cheaper) aircraft from other manufacturers? Did it assess whether the F-35 actually meets Canada’s military requirements? (And what, by the way, are those requirements? Maybe the Canadian public would like to know.) Did the review even consider the pilot-safety issue that would inevitably arise if the single-engine F-35 were deplored to patrol the vast distances across the far north and along Canada’s coastlines?

We don’t know these things because the Conservatives haven’t told us. But the review must have endorsed the F-35 because it found its way back to the cabinet agenda this past spring for a decision. In June, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, apparently not satisfied he could make a convincing case to the public, bought some time by removing the item from the agenda. The government bought some more time in September by deciding to spend unannounced millions to extend until 2025 the life of the CF-18, the 30-year-old twin-engine warplane that the F-35 is meant to replace.

These moves seemed to suggest that the Tories were punting a final F-35 purchase decision until after the federal election, scheduled for October 2015.

But things are not always what they seem to be in the worlds of politics and weapons acquisition. Last week, Canadians learned, courtesy of a leak from the U.S. Pentagon, that Ottawa is proposing to fast-track its acquisition of F-35s. (Why Canadians have to learn about important issues, anything from drug safety to military purchases, from the Americans rather than from their own government is an interesting question. But I digress.)

According to the leaked Pentagon briefing, Ottawa plans to send a letter of intent to Washington this month confirming that Canada will place an order for at least four F-35s by the end of this fiscal year (next March 31). The deal is this: the U.S. Air Force has four places on the F-35 production schedule for aircraft to be delivered in 2016 or 2017. The RCAF would take those positions, and use those four aircraft for pilot training; in return the USAF would take four slots that are earmarked for Canada on the 2019 delivery schedule.

If, as we are told, no final decision has been made to buy F-35s, why the rush to order them? A cynic might suggest it has something to do with the polls. According to EKOS Research, concern about public safety, in the wake of terrorism-linked incidents in Ottawa and Quebec, has boosted the Conservatives’ standing as they rose from 12 points behind the Liberals a month earlier to just three points down today.

That movement was enough to cause Frank Graves, president of EKOS, to speculate that Harper might find it expedient to ignore the fixed-election law again and call a snap early election. In this scenario, a multi-billion dollar military purchase, plus a tough-on-crime domestic agenda, might be the ticket to re-elect the Tories. Or is this far too cynical?

Ghomeshi affair shows the importance of investigative journalism

Published on Nov. 2, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

The Jian Ghomeshi saga, sordid though it is, has been fascinating on several levels as it played out over the past week or 10 days.

On the most fundamental level, there’s the serious issue of violence against women; yes, in some situations, the state does have a place in the bedrooms of the nation.

On another level, there’s the potency of celebrity in the world of media and entertainment. In the lilliputian universe of Canadian radio, Ghomeshi was a giant; the women he allegedly abused were afraid to complain about him. Then there’s the peril of hubris, as Ghomeshi has surely discovered. Next, there’s the power of social media both to raise up and bring down those who play around with it; Ghomeshi used it to build a following and his own Facebook posting brought him down.

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And, sadly, there’s the cowardice – or call it the willing complicity – of his employer, the CBC, which knew of the allegations against its star radio host for many months, but made its inquiries so cursory that it was able to satisfy itself that Ghomeshi was being forthcoming and truthful when he lied that he was the innocent victim of a vindictive jilted lover. The CBC chose to believe the lie because it feared the consequences of the truth.

The aspect I wish to consider today is something different. It is what the Ghomeshi affair tells us about the importance of investigative reporting. To many people, investigative reporting is just sensationalism for the sake of selling newspapers or attracting audiences. Those people would be wrong.

Investigative reporting is at the heart of responsible journalism. It exposes corruption, abuse of trust and criminality in secret places. It reveals truths that those in power do not want told – in scandals ranging from Watergate in the United States to Airbus in Canada.

But investigative reporting is not easy and it is not cheap – two reasons why there is so little of it done these days. It requires patient, time-consuming research. A single story may tie up reporters for weeks or even months. Editors and lawyers will pick over every word looking for possible libel.

The best investigative reporting in Canada today is being done by the Toronto Star. All other news organizations followed in its wake as it peeled off the layers of the Jian Ghomeshi story. (When the National Post, Globe and Mail and the CBC itself are reduced to quoting Star disclosures, you know that newspaper is on to something big.)

Rumours about Ghomeshi and issues with women began circulating in Toronto media and legal circles last spring. The Star’s Kevin Donovan started work on the story in May, interviewing four women who claimed to have been sexually abused by Ghomeshi. None of the four had gone to the police and none was prepared at that point to let the Star publish her name. Although the Star believed the women – they independently described similar non-consensual experiences – the newspaper decided it would be irresponsible to run such an explosive story based on information from unnamed sources.

That changed when Ghomeshi went on Facebook last weekend to claim that he was the victim of a smear campaign. “A major Canadian media publication (referring to the Star) did due diligence but never printed a story. One assumes they recognized these attempts to recast my sexual behaviour were fabrications,” he wrote.

The Facebook posting was a big mistake. His public denial and assertion prompted the Star to run the story it had been sitting on. It cited separate incidents involving four women. As the week went on, that number grew to nine. At least two agreed to be named and three filed formal complaints with the police.

The sad saga is not over yet. Police are on the case. CBC has hired investigators to find out who in the organization knew what and when they found out. Jian Ghomeshi’s once bright career is in ruins. Sad is the word.

Senate majority may mean little to Republicans

Published on Oct. 29, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Given the current gridlock in the United States Congress, one might reasonably ask why it makes any difference who wins the Nov. 4 mid-term elections.

The American political system was created under the principle of “checks and balances” and “separation of powers,” which assumes a modicum of accommodation among the various branches of government for it to work efficiently. Alas, compromise has little resonance among contemporary political leaders in the U.S.

Only during the first two years of his presidency has Barack Obama been able to deal with a co-operative Congress. Reports suggest that immediately after his election in 2008, Republican congressional leaders vowed to frustrate his agenda at every turn

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Canadians concerned, but not panicked

Published Oct. 27, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Reflecting on the events in Ottawa last week, the most striking thing was not the violence that took the life of a young soldier, Nathan Cirillo, at the National War Memorial and that of his murderer in a shootout in Parliament’s Hall of Honour. The most striking thing was the response to that violence from politicians, the police, the press and the Canadian public.

True, there was some silly talk on the airwaves about how this “assault on the heart of Canadian democracy” would change Canada and Canadians forever. That was nonsense. For the most part, the response was measured, restrained and thoughtful. Concerned, yes. Panicked, no. Conspiracy theories did not attract enough oxygen to survive.

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There was a sense that we live in an age where unstable individuals — like Michael Zehaf-Bibeau in Ottawa or Martin Couture-Rouleau, who killed warrant officer Patrice Vincent in Quebec — will sometimes live out their religious or other fantasies by resorting to violence. It has happened before and, the world being as it is, it will happen again.

Every time it happens, there is talk of a need for greater security, for tighter laws and increased enforcement. Some steps get taken, but nothing draconian. As Canadians, we value an open society, and we want to keep it that way.

We don’t like politicians who play partisan politics with security issues, as some U.S. politicians do. We don’t like media who, as some U.S. cable stations do, play the fear card, trying to build audiences by fanning panic on issues such as ISIL and Ebola.

We try to keep a sense of perspective, and I thought CBC in particular did an exemplary job of that last week — reporting the facts, sifting truth from rumour, avoiding speculation and refusing to jump to premature conclusions.

Perspective means remembering what has gone before. I was in the Centre Block on the day in May 1966, when Paul Joseph Chartier, an embittered and unemployed security guard from Toronto, blew himself up in a Commons washroom. He had gone there to light a bomb that he had made from 10 sticks of dynamite, determined to throw it into the chamber to kill as many politicians as possible. As we learned at the subsequent inquiry, he probably would have succeeded if the clerk from whom he bought the dynamite had not sold him a shorter fuse than the one he asked for.

Security was tightened a bit after that. Even so, I recall rushing to Parliament Hill on the night in October 1970 when the FLQ murdered Quebec Labour Minister Pierre Laporte in Montreal. For some reason, all the lights were off in the Parliament Buildings. It was eerie. I was unchallenged as I ran down the darkened Hall of Honour — and smack into Bud Drury, a senior minister in the Pierre Trudeau cabinet. After we picked ourselves up and, being Canadian, apologized, Drury told me he was headed to an emergency cabinet meeting. So I followed him.

In late August 1973, about 1,800 striking railway workers from Montreal decided to carry their protest to Ottawa. Many of them, as I wrote that day, “had slaked their thirst with something stronger than lemonade on the bus trip.” On their arrival, after pausing to scuffle with a few Maoists, they decided to storm Parliament Hill.

Some of them rushed into the Centre Block, past the startled (and unarmed) security guards, and down the Hall of Honour to what they assumed was the Commons chamber. Instead, they found themselves at the entrance to the Parliamentary Library, where they came face to face, not with cabinet ministers, but with a large marble statue of Queen Victoria. As always, Victoria radiated disapproval. Utterly confused, the strikers beat a hasty retreat.

Now, no one would suggest Queen Victoria is an answer to security issues on the Hill. But her statute is still there, still disapproving, a reminder that even in troubled times, some things remain constant.

Some Races to Watch on Election Night

Municipal campaigns across the province have been in full swing for months now. Next Monday, however, the race will come to an end. There are thousands of candidates running for office across the province. Most of my academic research focuses on municipal government and politics, which is why I’ve been following some of the races quite closely. I thought it might be helpful to spotlight a few that I think will be interesting on election night. If you want to follow along, here are some worth watching:

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Toronto

Toronto is obviously garnering most of the media attention this election cycle. The race for mayor has provided a fair amount of interest, but it is likely it won’t be as close as some suspect. By this point, it is very likely John Tory will be Toronto’s next mayor. There are, however, some very interesting ward races worth watching.

First and foremost is Ward 2, where Rob Ford is running. He’s likely going to win, but challenger Andray Domise is providing some stiff competition. Much of the polling has shown Ford with a considerable lead, but Domise argues the race is closer than most think. The chances of a Ford-free council are slim, but Ward 2 is worth keeping an eye on.

Ward 7 could see incumbent Giorgio Mammoliti defeated. Alex Mazer is a bright, young candidate who could topple incumbent Ana Bailao in Ward 18, while Ward 20 has a number of candidates competing for Adam Vaughan’s former council seat, including Joe Cressy, Sarah Thomson and Anshul Kapoor. Ward 30 should be interesting as well, as incumbent Paula Fletcher faces a stiff challenge from both the left and right in Jane Farrow and broadcaster Liz West.

Mississauga

Perhaps the most exciting race in Ontario is in Mississauga, where Hazel McCallion’s retirement has opened the door for a tight race between Councilor and former MP Bonnie Crombie and former MP and MPP Steve Mahoney. The race has seen both mayoral contenders run attack ads. The city’s political class has been lining up behind each as well, with endorsements coming almost daily for each candidate. Push polls have even made an appearance. Polling indicates the race is close, so keep your eye on this race as Mississauga voters prepare to elect only the fourth Mayor in the city’s 42-year history.

Southwestern Ontario

Across Ontario, a number of large cities will have a new mayor after October 27. In Windsor, Hamilton, Waterloo, Kitchener and London, incumbents are not running again, opening the door for new faces.

Keep an eye on Hamilton. The polls indicate the race will be tight, as former Mayor Fred Eisenberger faces off against current council members Brad Clark and Brian McHattie. Also in Hamilton, watch Wards 1, 3 and 13 where there is no incumbents running for re-election. In each, smart, young and ambitious candidates are running aggressive campaigns to make their way to council – keep an eye on Matt Green in Ward 3 and Aidan Johnson in Ward 1.

In London, young candidates also appear to be leading in two open wards. In Ward 3 and 7 incumbents have moved on. Watch Josh Morgan in Ward 7 and Mo Salih in Ward 3. Both look to be new faces on council. Also keep an eye on Jesse Helmer in Ward 4. He’s in a tough fight with incumbent Stephen Orser and just may force an upset on election night.

Further down the 401, watch the mayoral race in Windsor closely. Mayor Eddie Francis is not running again and a number of candidates are vying to replace him. Be sure to also watch Ward 10 closely, as incumbent Al Maghnieh has been embroiled in a spending scandal and is fighting for his political life. Will the power of incumbency pay off? We shall see.

Closer to home in Kitchener-Waterloo, some of the regional races should attract some interest. In the contest for Waterloo’s two regional councilors, popular former Waterloo City Councilor Karen Scian is challenging incumbents Jane Mitchell and Sean Strickland. Each is running an aggressive campaign. In Kitchener, regional councilors Tom Galloway and Geoff Lorentz are facing a similar challenge from Cameron Dearlove and former MPP Wayne Wettlaufer. Former MPs Andrew Telegdi and Karen Redman are also attempting political comebacks and running for seats on regional council from Waterloo and Kitchener respectively. Both are worth keeping an eye on.

Electoral slates

How will the slates fare? Municipal politics in Ontario is generally non-partisan. This election, however, has featured a number of slates. First, in Hamilton a slate named “The First 100 Days” has bound together a number of school board trustee candidates under a single platform. In Guelph, two separate slates have formed around candidates for Mayor and Council. On the right, “Grassroots Guelph” is opposing Mayor Karen Farbridge’s agenda and advocating for debt reductions and lower taxes. On the left-wing side of the political spectrum a group called “We Are Guelph” has endorsed the mayor and a group of aligned candidates for council. What affect (if any) these slates have will be interesting to watch.

Polling

Will the pollsters get it right? Two polling companies, in particular, have been active across the province: Forum and Mainstreet Technologies. Some of the larger firms are polling in Toronto as well, but not outside of the city. Polling done in local elections generally have smaller samples and have been criticized by some as inaccurate. We’ll have to wait until election night to see how accurate either firm is, but comparing the results should be interesting. You can find some of Forum’s results here and Mainstreet’s here.

Election Post-Mortem Discussion

After the election, drop by Wilfrid Laurier University for the election post-mortem event on November 5. We’re welcoming former candidate for Kitchener council Ward 9 Debra Chapman (who also teaches political science at Laurier), Gabriel Eidelman from the University of Toronto, and Western University’s Andrew Sancton. This panel will analyze the results from across the province and engage in a lively discussion. Details are here.

 

 

McGregor & Spicer: At City Hall, homeowners call the tune

Published Oct. 22, 2014, in the National Post.

In municipalities across Ontario, candidates for local office are doing everything they can to reach voters before Election Day on Oct. 27. The campaign, which officially kicked off in January, is in the home stretch. By this point, candidates have knocked on hundreds of doors, shaken hands at summer festivals and block parties and spoken at countless community meetings and debates.

If you are a homeowner, however, your local candidates have likely been paying special attention to you. The reason for this is simple: Data from the General Social Survey, conducted annually by Statistics Canada, show that homeowners vote at much higher rates in municipal elections than renters. The gap is significant even after controlling for a variety of other factors known to influence voter turnout, including age, income and education. While the difference also exists in federal and provincial elections, it is particularly acute at the municipal level.

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Rob Ford’s spectre haunts Toronto mayor’s race

Published Oct. 21, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record.

A casual observer of the Toronto municipal election scene might be misled into thinking that the mayoral contest would itself determine the city’s future policy decisions.

Certainly, media coverage of the race has focused almost exclusively upon the position of mayor, largely ignoring the other 44 council members. This absence of coverage forgets the fact that the city has a “weak mayor” system, with limited power of independent policy action for that position beyond appointing an executive committee.

On matters ranging from the revision of Rob Ford’s budget proposal, the rejection of his transit plan, his policy on plastic bags and then ultimately the removal of most of his powers when scandal broke, the council was in no way under the mayor’s thumb.

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Tory is a ‘safe’ bet to win mayoral race

Published Oct. 20, 2014, in the Waterloo Region Record

Back in 1972, when his Liberal government lost its majority in the election against Robert Stanfield’s Progressive Conservatives — coming within two seats of losing the government entirely — Justin Trudeau’s dad, Pierre, struck a pose of supreme unconcern, calmly reassuring his supporters that “the universe is unfolding as it should.”

Trudeau the Elder was quoting a fragment of a prose poem called “Desiderata,” by the American writer and lawyer Max Ehrmann, who wrote: “(And) whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.”

It is unlikely that today’s political leaders will be quoting “Desiderata” any time soon. The words convey a certain complacency that none of them can afford to feel as the country heads to a federal election a year from now.

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Trudeau the Younger finds his Liberal universe beginning to wobble after 18 months of relatively smooth unfolding. Stephen Harper, the master of all he surveys from Parliament Hill, is still trying, after almost nine years as prime minister, to figure out what he has to do to get the people to love him — or enough of them to hand him a fourth term. And NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair would find the universe a much more congenial place if he could translate parliamentary performance into points in the opinion polls (and, ultimately, electoral votes).

Meanwhile, in Canada’s largest city, Toronto, where the absurdly long municipal campaign will finally lurch to an end next Monday, nothing has unfolded the way it should, or the way it was meant to, or expected to, unfold. Back in the beginning, a year or so ago, the Toronto universe was poised for a battle royal between the “Ford Nation” with its beloved Rob Ford, the city’s druggie mayor, and just about anybody else.

Ford Nation would deliver perhaps 35 per cent of the popular vote to their populist hero. If most of the remaining vote went to one candidate, the Ford era would be over. That candidate would be Olivia Chow, who was the antithesis of Ford: female, urban, Chinese, progressive (a former NDP MP and widow of Jack Layton). Conventional wisdom had it that Chow would take the old city and enough of the suburbs to defeat Rob Ford handily.

That universe collapsed. Rob Ford got cancer and withdrew from the mayoral campaign (although he is still running for a city council seat). In his place, he substituted his even less charming older brother, Doug, to carry the Ford Nation flag. Meanwhile, a third mayoral candidate appeared — John Tory, a Conservative with an almost unblemished record of electoral failure (the mayoralty in 2003, Ontario provincial election in 2007 and, going back to his backroom days, the 1993 federal election when he ran Kim Campbell’s disastrous campaign against Jean Chrétien’s Liberals).

But Tory is going to win on Monday, for several reasons. He is going to win because he is not a Ford. He is going to win because he is a safe Conservative. He is going to win because there are a lot more Liberals in Toronto than New Democrats or Conservatives. And given a choice between a safe conservative and a socialist, most Liberals will go for the former.

For voters who still worry about such things (and there’s been enough racism in the campaign to make one wonder), he is a WASP through and through. He is not a visible minority, he does not speak English with an accent, and he is not female.

He is known to be a competent and experienced manager. He is no visionary; his ideas don’t always add up. His “SmartTrack” transit policy seems almost as flawed as his 2007 provincial election promise to extend full public funding to faith-based schools.

But maybe Torontonians are not looking for vision this year. Maybe getting rid of the Fords will be enough for now. They can worry about the vision thing the next time the universe unfolds.