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Archived Seat Projections

Late Poll Trends NDP
       
The following seat projection is based upon an aggregation of polls from Abacus, Ekos, Ipsos Reid, Oracle and Forum conducted between June 4-11, among a blended sample of approximately 6000 respondents. The data largely overlaps with the previous projection, but includes new polls from Oracle, Ekos and Ipsos, the latter of which indicated a strong trend to the NDP. As noted previously, there is a a large 11-percentage point discrepancy in NDP support among the various polls, and these new data only have a slight impact upon the projection itself. When aggregated together and weighted for sample size, the Liberals have a 2.5-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives, and the overall pattern appears very similar to the 2011 election result. If this pattern of support sustains, the outcome would probably be another Liberal minority government. The method used by LISPOP has shown to be accurate to an average of 2.2 seats per party per election over six previous Ontario provincial elections. The 2011 election results are in parentheses.

Projected distribution of seats by party, released June 12, 2014

 
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
NONDP.PNG
Seat Projection
38
49
20
2011 Election
37
53
17
Toronto
0 (0)
18 (17)
4 (5)
GTA
4 (4)
13 (13)
1 (1)
Hamilton-Niag.
3 (3)
4 (4)
4 (4)
East
16 (14)
6 (8)
0 (0)
SouthWest
14 (15)
5 (7)
5 (2)
North
1 (1)
3 (4)
6 (5)

Note:

The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.