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Archived Seat Projections

Back to a Near Tie
       
The following seat projection is based upon an aggregation of polls from Abacus, Ekos, Ipsos and Forum conducted between June 3-8 among a blended sample of approximately 5000 respondents. Figures show declining variance in the Liberal-Conservative differential among pollsters, but a large discrepancy in NDP support has emerged. Polling firms have ranged from 17- to 28-percentage points among the different polling firms during the same week. When aggregated together and weighted for sample size, the Liberals have a one-point lead over the Conservatives, and the overall pattern appears very similar to the 2011 election result. If this pattern of support sustains, the outcome would probably be another Liberal minority government. The method used by LISPOP has shown to be accurate to an average of 2.2 seats per party per election over six previous Ontario provincial elections. The 2011 election results are in parentheses.

Projected distribution of seats by party, released June 10, 2014

 
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
NONDP.PNG
Seat Projection
41
47
19
2011 Election
37
53
17
Toronto
0 (0)
18 (17)
4 (5)
GTA
4 (4)
13 (13)
1 (1)
Hamilton-Niag.
3 (3)
4 (4)
4 (4)
East
17 (14)
5 (8)
0 (0)
SouthWest
16 (15)
4 (7)
4 (2)
North
1 (1)
3 (4)
6 (5)

Note:

The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.