header





parliament

bar

Archived Seat Projections

Pre-Debate Polls Indicate Virtual Tie
       
The following seat projection is drawn from polls conducted by Ekos, Abacus, Ipsos Reid, Oracle and Forum research between May 20-29, 2014, among an aggregated sample of about 5000 respondents. Averaging the polling figures suggests the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are virtually tied in popular support at this time. In fact, the aggregate support levels differentiating the two leading parties haven't varied by more than a three-percentage-point margin during this election period. LISPOP projections have varied from those at other websites because they are based upon a basket of polls that de-emphasize data from any single source. The 2011 election figures are in parentheses. This method has shown to be accurate to an average of 2.2 seats per party per election over six previous Ontario provincial elections.

Projected distribution of seats by party, released June 2, 2014

 
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
NONDP.PNG
Seat Projection
42
45
20
2011 Election
37
53
17
Toronto
0 (0)
17 (17)
5 (5)
GTA
4 (4)
13 (13)
1 (1)
Hamilton-Niag.
3 (3)
4 (4)
4 (4)
East
17 (14)
5 (8)
0 (0)
SouthWest
17 (15)
3 (7)
4 (2)
North
1 (1)
3 (4)
6 (5)

Note:

The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.