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Archived Seat Projections

Liberal Minority Indicated
       
The following seat projection is based upon an aggregation of polls from Abacus, Ipsos Reid, Ekos and Forum Research conducted between May 14-24 among a blended sample of approximately 6000 respondents. The figures show less variance among the different polling firms than in weeks past, and indicate a small but growing lead in popular vote for the Liberals of about two percentage points over the Conservatives. If the election reflected these levels of support, the outcome would probably be another Liberal minority government. The method used by LISPOP has shown to be accurate to a level of 2.2 seats per party per election over six previous Ontario provincial elections. The 2011 election results are in parentheses.

Projected distribution of seats by party, released May 27, 2014

 
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
NONDP.PNG
Seat Projection
39
48
20
2011 Election
37
53
17
Toronto
0 (0)
17 (17)
5 (5)
GTA
4 (4)
13 (13)
1 (1)
Hamilton-Niag.
3 (3)
4 (4)
4 (4)
East
16 (14)
6 (8)
0 (0)
SouthWest
15 (15)
5 (7)
4 (2)
North
1 (1)
3 (4)
6 (5)

Note:

The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.