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Archived Seat Projections

Conservatives Gain as Polls Vary Widely
       
The following seat projection is based upon an aggregation of polls from Ipsos Reid, Oracle Research and Innovative Research conducted between May 2-9 among over 3000 respondents. The Progressive Conservatives have opened up a clearer lead, but their popular vote edge over the Liberals was only 3 percentage points. A continuing surprise has been the variation among the specific polls, ranging from an 11-point PC lead to a 6-point Liberal lead. It should also be mentioned that Ipsos has provided two sets of figures, the raw party preference results and other data screened by likelihood to vote. This projection includes the simple party preference numbers. The 2011 figures are in parentheses. 

Projected distribution of seats by party, released May 13, 2014

 
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
NONDP.PNG
Seat Projection
47
39
21
2011 Election
37
53
17
Toronto
0 (0)
15 (17)
7 (5)
GTA
4 (4)
13 (13)
1 (1)
Hamilton-Niag.
6 (3)
1 (4)
4 (4)
East
18 (14)
3 (8)
0 (0)
SouthWest
18 (15)
3 (7)
3 (2)
North
1 (1)
3 (4)
6 (5)

Note:

The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.