Archived Seat Projections

Modest Slide by NDP, Gain by Tories
During the five weeks since the previous LISPOP provincial seat projection, the change in Ontario popular vote support has not moved dramatically. Indeed, there has been only modest movement since the 2011 Ontario election. Since the last projection in April, the NDP has dropped three percentage points and the Conservatives have gained two points, leaving them with a slight 1.5-point plurality over the Liberals among the approximately 5000 respondents contacted in polling conducted over the past month. This still leaves a substantial number of very tight constituency races, and the safest conclusion from these data is that a minority government result is indicated, rather than that any party has a decisive lead. The Conservatives have expanded their seat totals somewhat in the eastern and southwestern regions of Ontario, but continue to be challenged in the large urban centres, especially Toronto and the GTA. The following seat projection is based on a blended aggregate sample from a number of polling firms including Ekos, Ipsos, Nanos and Innovative Research that took place between April 7 and May 3. The figures in parentheses are the 2011 election results. 

Projected distribution of seats by party, released May 6, 2014

Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
Seat Projection
2011 Election
0 (0)
16 (17)
6 (5)
4 (4)
13 (13)
1 (1)
5 (3)
2 (4)
4 (4)
17 (14)
5 (8)
0 (0)
18 (15)
3 (7)
3 (2)
1 (1)
3 (4)
6 (5)


The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.