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Archived Seat Projections

Little Movement in Ontario Polls
       
There has been barely any change in Ontario public opinion since the previous LISPOP projection in October. Based upon three polls from Forum Research and Abacus with approximately 3000 respondents gathered between Nov. 29 and Dec. 19, 2012, support levels for each party have varied by an average of 1 per cent since the last projection. The new projection gives the Conservatives 45 seats, mostly in smaller cities and rural regions; the Liberals would have 35 seats, disproportionately in the GTA and urban suburbs; and the NDP with 27 seats, largely in the north and certain urban core areas. Despite being only nine seats short of a majority, there were few constituencies the PCs didn't already hold where it was within 15 points of the winner of the 2011 election, and none in the city of Toronto. This suggests the next election might well produce another minority parliament.

 
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
NONDP.PNG
Seat Projection
45
35
27
2011 Election
53
37
17

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.