Archived Seat Projections

• Little Change Following Debate
  2011-10-03
• New Survey Confirms Dead Heat
  2011-09-1426
• Liberals Slip but Still in Minority Government Range
  2011-09-20
• New Polls Confirm Liberal Lead
  2011-09-14
• Conservative Lead Erodes
  2011-09-09
• Ontario Conservatives Just Shy of Majority Numbers
  2011-09-02
• Ontario Liberal Campaign Picking Up Steam
  2011-08-18
• Conservatives Making Gains in Ontario Election
  2011-07-19
• Conservatives in the Lead for Ontario Election
  2011-06-20

Ontario Election Post-Diction
       
The apparent election result of 53-37-17 in seat distribution produced a 3.3 seat average error per party. This is lower than the 1.9 average error per party over the previous five Ontario elections, but stands up well against the federal post-diction average of 4 seats per party per election.

The record of correct riding calls by category is as follows:

Red Liberal 31/35

Pink Leaning Liberal 11/15

Blue Conservative 28/28

Pale Blue Leaning Conservative 2/3

Gold NDP 14/16

Pale Yellow Leaning NDP 1/3

Grey (Too Close to Call) 5 Liberal, 2 Conservative

Note:

The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.