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Archived Seat Projections

Virtual Tie in Ontario
       
There has been a noted scarcity of Ontario polls in recent months despite the speculated imminence of a provincial election. As a result, LISPOP has not posted an Ontario seat projection for almost a year. However, we are relaxing our customary standard of limiting the window of inclusion for polls to three weeks in non-campaign periods, and providing a projection drawn from three polls including Ipsos-Reid that were conducted during February and March among an aggregate sample of 2650. These data cumulatively suggest a one percentage-point lead in popular vote for the Progressive Conservatives over the Liberals. The fact that these polls provide a very limited range of variance in levels of party support provides greater confidence in this exception. The projection takes into account the spate of by-elections that have occurred since the 2011 general election, but does not factor in possible opinion shifts triggered by new information about the gas-plant scandal. The figures in parentheses are the 2011 results. 

Projected distribution of seats by party, released April 1, 2014

 
Ontario PC Logo 2010.jpg
Ontario Liberal Party
NONDP.PNG
Seat Projection
41 (37)
40 (53)
26 (17)
2011 Election
37
53
17
Toronto
0 (0)
15 (17)
7 (5)
GTA
4 (4)
13 (13)
1 (1)
Ham-Niag
4 (3)
2 (4)
5 (4)
East
17 (14)
5 (8)
0 (0)
SouthWest
15 (15)
3 (7)
6 (2)
North
1 (1)
2 (4)
7 (5)

Note:

The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.