Archived Seat Projections
- Little Movement in Ontario Polls
2013-01-16 - Conservatives Lead Three-Way Split in Ontario
2012-10-25 - Little Change Following Debate
2011-10-03 - New Survey Confirms Dead Heat
2011-09-1426 - Liberals Slip but Still in Minority Government Range
2011-09-20 - New Polls Confirm Liberal Lead
2011-09-14 - Conservative Lead Erodes
2011-09-09 - Ontario Conservatives Just Shy of Majority Numbers
2011-09-02 - Ontario Liberal Campaign Picking Up Steam
2011-08-18 - Conservatives Making Gains in Ontario Election
2011-07-19 - Conservatives in the Lead for Ontario Election
2011-06-20
Conservatives Gain Seats from Liberal Vote Loss to NDP
A blendeding of the most recent set of Ontario polls conducted by Ipsos, Ekos, and Forum Research between March 26- April 17 from a weighted sample of some 3500 respondents, indicated the main voter trend since the 2011 election is away from the Liberals and toward the NDP. Nonetheless, when applied to provincial constituencies, the Progressive Conservatives are poised to gain more sets than the NDP, even though PC voter support has seen little change. As indicated below in the table, none of the PC gains are in Toronto or the surrounding GTA, while the NDP gains are in Toronto, Windsor and the North.
 |
 |
 |
|
Seat Projection |
45 |
38 |
24 |
2011 Election |
37 |
53 |
17 |
Toronto | 0 (0) | 15 (17) | 7 (5) |
GTA | 4 (4) | 13 (13) | 1 (1) |
Ham-Niag | 5 (3) | 2 (4) | 4 (4) |
East | 17 (14) | 5 (8) | 0 (0) |
SouthWest | 18 (15) | 2 (5) | 4 (2) |
North | 1 (1) | 1 (4) | 8 (5) |
Note:
The 2011 election results are in brackets. The "regional swing model" is more fully explained in a paper originally prepared and presented by Dr. Barry Kay to the 1990 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, entitled "Improving Upon the Cube Law: A Regional Swing Model for Converting Canadian Popular Vote into Parliamentary Seats". It should be noted that the application of the model above does not make use of the "incumbency effect" described in that paper. In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963. Readers interested in post-dictions for past federal elections dating back to 1963, for projections using pre-election polls dating back to the 1980 federal election and for three Ontario provincial elections, may contact me at bkay@wlu.ca.